Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). BGSU wins about 53% of the time at a number like ours.
MASS
Games
4
Plays per game
55.0
Drives per game
11.0
SP+
-6.2 (93rd, offence 101st, defence 82nd)
Returning production
-57% (pass -36%, rush 221%, receiving -11%)
BGSU
Games
4
Plays per game
58.0
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-26.4 (136th, offence 138th, defence 126th)
Returning production
-6% (pass 940%, rush 0%, receiving 3%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MASS
BGSU
pass rate, all downs
38%127th
45%95th
pass rate, standard downs
31%127th
38%99th
pass rate, 1st down
33%118th
38%105th
no-huddle share
8%126th
29%102nd
pass rate, passing downs
56%108th
59%94th
pass rate, red zone
22%125th
25%122nd
seconds per play (own drives)
31.615th
32.68th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MASS offence
MASS offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.280
220
30 of 138
success rate
0.450
220
59 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.237
220
65 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.267
220
18 of 138
rush: success rate
0.481
220
39 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.022
220
47 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.362
220
44 of 138
pass: success rate
0.407
220
94 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.671
220
39 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.510
220
50 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.302
220
81 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.520
220
18 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.141
220
40 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.550
220
128 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.889
220
72 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.095
220
12 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.073
220
39 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.023
220
6 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.000
220
131 of 138
BGSU offence
BGSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.115
232
136 of 138
success rate
0.336
232
135 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
0.958
232
138 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.261
232
138 of 138
rush: success rate
0.302
232
138 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.577
232
136 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.059
232
111 of 138
pass: success rate
0.364
232
119 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.447
232
101 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.431
232
124 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.152
232
137 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.431
232
135 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.246
232
133 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.727
232
80 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.188
232
138 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.194
232
129 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.138
232
135 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.056
232
76 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.300
232
53 of 138
MASS defence
MASS defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.139
273
11 of 138
success rate
0.366
273
45 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.020
273
6 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.277
273
4 of 138
rush: success rate
0.353
273
35 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.316
273
1 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.046
273
44 of 138
pass: success rate
0.389
273
65 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.531
273
63 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.421
273
47 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.263
273
53 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.567
273
38 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.218
273
101 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.706
273
64 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.500
273
1 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.161
273
69 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.088
273
50 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.073
273
100 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.300
273
123 of 138
BGSU defence
BGSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.227
242
127 of 138
success rate
0.492
242
135 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.294
242
93 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.251
242
132 of 138
rush: success rate
0.520
242
137 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.216
242
133 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.277
242
106 of 138
pass: success rate
0.477
242
122 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.438
242
39 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.556
242
136 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.306
242
94 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.436
242
133 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.169
242
36 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.739
242
81 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.231
242
121 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.120
242
13 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.091
242
56 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.029
242
2 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.100
242
35 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs