Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). CMU wins about 54% of the time at a number like ours.
CMU
Games
4
Plays per game
57.0
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
-18.7 (129th, offence 136th, defence 100th)
Returning production
54% (pass 9%, rush 123%, receiving 65%)
BALL
Games
4
Plays per game
61.5
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-25.0 (135th, offence 133rd, defence 133rd)
Returning production
6% (pass 0%, rush -104%, receiving 32%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
CMU
BALL
pass rate, all downs
35%133rd
53%29th
pass rate, standard downs
25%133rd
49%17th
pass rate, 1st down
32%121st
45%50th
no-huddle share
2%137th
50%83rd
pass rate, passing downs
56%107th
61%81st
pass rate, red zone
20%129th
52%14th
seconds per play (own drives)
32.69th
30.825th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
CMU offence
CMU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.000
228
123 of 138
success rate
0.351
228
129 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.196
228
87 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.135
228
68 of 138
rush: success rate
0.401
228
102 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.107
228
22 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.180
228
137 of 138
pass: success rate
0.263
228
138 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.423
228
107 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.395
228
131 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.254
228
112 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.181
228
63 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.129
228
22 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.826
228
25 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.000
228
119 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.162
228
94 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.096
228
87 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.066
228
99 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.400
228
51 of 138
BALL offence
BALL offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.047
246
110 of 138
success rate
0.337
246
133 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.417
246
14 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.090
246
83 of 138
rush: success rate
0.357
246
127 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.156
246
13 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.072
246
109 of 138
pass: success rate
0.339
246
128 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.596
246
57 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.392
246
133 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.247
246
115 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.542
246
132 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.214
246
118 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
246
7 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.625
246
87 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.199
246
132 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.138
246
134 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.061
246
84 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.700
246
34 of 138
CMU defence
CMU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.166
264
114 of 138
success rate
0.473
264
132 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.118
264
29 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.118
264
104 of 138
rush: success rate
0.496
264
133 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.862
264
43 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.153
264
75 of 138
pass: success rate
0.434
264
102 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.329
264
17 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.522
264
126 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.366
264
126 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.534
264
137 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.135
264
14 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.933
264
136 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.393
264
70 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.144
264
42 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.068
264
14 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.076
264
107 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.300
264
19 of 138
BALL defence
BALL defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.325
270
136 of 138
success rate
0.452
270
118 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.455
270
132 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.256
270
133 of 138
rush: success rate
0.420
270
83 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.352
270
136 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.455
270
131 of 138
pass: success rate
0.500
270
129 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.556
270
72 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.495
270
105 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.354
270
123 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.010
270
94 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.188
270
59 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
270
98 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.042
270
133 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.119
270
11 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.074
270
25 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.044
270
27 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.400
270
55 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs