Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). M-OH wins about 67% of the time at a number like ours.
OHIO
Games
4
Plays per game
66.2
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
-10.5 (109th, offence 105th, defence 101st)
Returning production
63% (pass 94%, rush 100%, receiving 17%)
M-OH
Games
4
Plays per game
58.8
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
-4.3 (88th, offence 86th, defence 91st)
Returning production
14% (pass -2%, rush 33%, receiving 13%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
OHIO
M-OH
pass rate, all downs
43%105th
52%40th
pass rate, standard downs
39%93rd
41%72nd
pass rate, 1st down
41%84th
47%40th
no-huddle share
89%23rd
22%109th
pass rate, red zone
33%95th
22%127th
pass rate, passing downs
53%118th
74%24th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.437th
30.533rd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
OHIO offence
OHIO offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.223
265
53 of 138
success rate
0.442
265
69 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.257
265
57 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.286
265
16 of 138
rush: success rate
0.463
265
57 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.053
265
36 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.104
265
107 of 138
pass: success rate
0.396
265
100 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.555
265
69 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.516
265
47 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.272
265
104 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.566
265
14 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.101
265
8 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.864
265
12 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.280
265
51 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.137
265
63 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.070
265
31 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.067
265
103 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.700
265
88 of 138
M-OH offence
M-OH offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.239
235
43 of 138
success rate
0.430
235
82 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.426
235
12 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.017
235
111 of 138
rush: success rate
0.389
235
111 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.877
235
92 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.619
235
6 of 138
pass: success rate
0.487
235
37 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.867
235
11 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.488
235
74 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.301
235
83 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.871
235
100 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.212
235
116 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
235
104 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.909
235
70 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.149
235
79 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.111
235
115 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.038
235
24 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.000
235
63 of 138
OHIO defence
OHIO defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.276
257
131 of 138
success rate
0.432
257
100 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.381
257
121 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.147
257
115 of 138
rush: success rate
0.405
257
71 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.088
257
118 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.490
257
135 of 138
pass: success rate
0.480
257
123 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.774
257
118 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.440
257
60 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.413
257
134 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.833
257
67 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.209
257
88 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
257
91 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.350
257
138 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.158
257
63 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.112
257
93 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.046
257
33 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.600
257
60 of 138
M-OH defence
M-OH defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.179
260
116 of 138
success rate
0.450
260
115 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.316
260
102 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.065
260
83 of 138
rush: success rate
0.425
260
86 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.985
260
91 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.372
260
123 of 138
pass: success rate
0.483
260
125 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.529
260
62 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.509
260
117 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.341
260
116 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.860
260
69 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.217
260
98 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
260
101 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.700
260
129 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.104
260
2 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.065
260
9 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.038
260
13 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.500
260
80 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs