Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). CMU wins about 54% of the time at a number like ours.
CMU
Games
4
Plays per game
57.0
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
-18.7 (129th, offence 136th, defence 100th)
Returning production
54% (pass 9%, rush 123%, receiving 65%)
EMU
Games
5
Plays per game
65.2
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-18.0 (127th, offence 127th, defence 110th)
Returning production
72% (pass 97%, rush 49%, receiving 64%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
CMU
EMU
pass rate, all downs
35%133rd
57%15th
pass rate, standard downs
25%133rd
49%16th
pass rate, 1st down
32%121st
52%15th
no-huddle share
2%137th
14%118th
pass rate, passing downs
56%107th
75%19th
pass rate, red zone
20%129th
43%44th
seconds per play (own drives)
32.69th
29.755th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
CMU offence
CMU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.000
228
123 of 138
success rate
0.351
228
129 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.196
228
87 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.135
228
68 of 138
rush: success rate
0.401
228
102 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.107
228
22 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.180
228
137 of 138
pass: success rate
0.263
228
138 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.423
228
107 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.395
228
131 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.254
228
112 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.181
228
63 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.129
228
22 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.826
228
25 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.000
228
119 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.162
228
94 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.096
228
87 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.066
228
99 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.400
228
51 of 138
EMU offence
EMU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.016
326
124 of 138
success rate
0.371
326
122 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.143
326
110 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.036
326
102 of 138
rush: success rate
0.394
326
109 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.956
326
74 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.058
326
112 of 138
pass: success rate
0.362
326
121 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.310
326
126 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.436
326
121 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.236
326
123 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.895
326
98 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.168
326
68 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
326
37 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.179
326
114 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.172
326
112 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.098
326
94 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.074
326
116 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
74.800
326
10 of 138
CMU defence
CMU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.166
264
114 of 138
success rate
0.473
264
132 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.118
264
29 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.118
264
104 of 138
rush: success rate
0.496
264
133 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.862
264
43 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.153
264
75 of 138
pass: success rate
0.434
264
102 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.329
264
17 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.522
264
126 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.366
264
126 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.534
264
137 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.135
264
14 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.933
264
136 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.393
264
70 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.144
264
42 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.068
264
14 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.076
264
107 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.300
264
19 of 138
EMU defence
EMU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.112
332
90 of 138
success rate
0.410
332
84 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.253
332
84 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.064
332
82 of 138
rush: success rate
0.406
332
72 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.040
332
105 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.204
332
87 of 138
pass: success rate
0.426
332
96 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.455
332
50 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.484
332
96 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.265
332
55 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.970
332
92 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.187
332
55 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.696
332
57 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.406
332
72 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.179
332
91 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.095
332
61 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.084
332
122 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.800
332
23 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs