Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MASS wins about 63% of the time at a number like ours.
BALL
Games
4
Plays per game
61.5
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-25.0 (135th, offence 133rd, defence 133rd)
Returning production
6% (pass 0%, rush -104%, receiving 32%)
MASS
Games
4
Plays per game
55.0
Drives per game
11.0
SP+
-6.2 (93rd, offence 101st, defence 82nd)
Returning production
-57% (pass -36%, rush 221%, receiving -11%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
BALL
MASS
pass rate, all downs
53%29th
38%127th
pass rate, standard downs
49%17th
31%127th
pass rate, 1st down
45%50th
33%118th
no-huddle share
50%83rd
8%126th
pass rate, passing downs
61%81st
56%108th
pass rate, red zone
52%14th
22%125th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.825th
31.615th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
BALL offence
BALL offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.047
246
110 of 138
success rate
0.337
246
133 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.417
246
14 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.090
246
83 of 138
rush: success rate
0.357
246
127 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.156
246
13 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.072
246
109 of 138
pass: success rate
0.339
246
128 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.596
246
57 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.392
246
133 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.247
246
115 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.542
246
132 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.214
246
118 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
246
7 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.625
246
87 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.199
246
132 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.138
246
134 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.061
246
84 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.700
246
34 of 138
MASS offence
MASS offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.280
220
30 of 138
success rate
0.450
220
59 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.237
220
65 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.267
220
18 of 138
rush: success rate
0.481
220
39 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.022
220
47 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.362
220
44 of 138
pass: success rate
0.407
220
94 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.671
220
39 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.510
220
50 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.302
220
81 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.520
220
18 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.141
220
40 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.550
220
128 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.889
220
72 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.095
220
12 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.073
220
39 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.023
220
6 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.000
220
131 of 138
BALL defence
BALL defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.325
270
136 of 138
success rate
0.452
270
118 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.455
270
132 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.256
270
133 of 138
rush: success rate
0.420
270
83 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.352
270
136 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.455
270
131 of 138
pass: success rate
0.500
270
129 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.556
270
72 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.495
270
105 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.354
270
123 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.010
270
94 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.188
270
59 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
270
98 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.042
270
133 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.119
270
11 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.074
270
25 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.044
270
27 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.400
270
55 of 138
MASS defence
MASS defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.139
273
11 of 138
success rate
0.366
273
45 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.020
273
6 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.277
273
4 of 138
rush: success rate
0.353
273
35 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.316
273
1 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.046
273
44 of 138
pass: success rate
0.389
273
65 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.531
273
63 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.421
273
47 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.263
273
53 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.567
273
38 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.218
273
101 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.706
273
64 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.500
273
1 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.161
273
69 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.088
273
50 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.073
273
100 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.300
273
123 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs