Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). M-OH wins about 53% of the time at a number like ours.
M-OH
Games
4
Plays per game
58.8
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
-4.3 (88th, offence 86th, defence 91st)
Returning production
14% (pass -2%, rush 33%, receiving 13%)
MASS
Games
4
Plays per game
55.0
Drives per game
11.0
SP+
-6.2 (93rd, offence 101st, defence 82nd)
Returning production
-57% (pass -36%, rush 221%, receiving -11%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
M-OH
MASS
pass rate, all downs
52%40th
38%127th
pass rate, standard downs
41%72nd
31%127th
pass rate, 1st down
47%40th
33%118th
no-huddle share
22%109th
8%126th
pass rate, passing downs
74%24th
56%108th
pass rate, red zone
22%127th
22%125th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.533rd
31.615th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
M-OH offence
M-OH offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.239
235
43 of 138
success rate
0.430
235
82 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.426
235
12 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.017
235
111 of 138
rush: success rate
0.389
235
111 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.877
235
92 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.619
235
6 of 138
pass: success rate
0.487
235
37 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.867
235
11 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.488
235
74 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.301
235
83 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.871
235
100 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.212
235
116 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
235
104 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.909
235
70 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.149
235
79 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.111
235
115 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.038
235
24 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.000
235
63 of 138
MASS offence
MASS offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.280
220
30 of 138
success rate
0.450
220
59 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.237
220
65 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.267
220
18 of 138
rush: success rate
0.481
220
39 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.022
220
47 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.362
220
44 of 138
pass: success rate
0.407
220
94 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.671
220
39 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.510
220
50 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.302
220
81 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.520
220
18 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.141
220
40 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.550
220
128 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.889
220
72 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.095
220
12 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.073
220
39 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.023
220
6 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.000
220
131 of 138
M-OH defence
M-OH defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.179
260
116 of 138
success rate
0.450
260
115 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.316
260
102 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.065
260
83 of 138
rush: success rate
0.425
260
86 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.985
260
91 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.372
260
123 of 138
pass: success rate
0.483
260
125 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.529
260
62 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.509
260
117 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.341
260
116 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.860
260
69 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.217
260
98 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
260
101 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.700
260
129 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.104
260
2 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.065
260
9 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.038
260
13 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.500
260
80 of 138
MASS defence
MASS defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.139
273
11 of 138
success rate
0.366
273
45 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.020
273
6 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.277
273
4 of 138
rush: success rate
0.353
273
35 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.316
273
1 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.046
273
44 of 138
pass: success rate
0.389
273
65 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.531
273
63 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.421
273
47 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.263
273
53 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.567
273
38 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.218
273
101 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.706
273
64 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.500
273
1 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.161
273
69 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.088
273
50 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.073
273
100 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.300
273
123 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs