Line has moved -2.0 since we first saw it (OHIO -5.5 to OHIO -3.5).
Betting
Spread
OHIO favouredMarket OHIO −3.5Ours KENT −3.8
KENT favouredgap 7.3 toward KENT
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| OHIO away | -3.5 | 27.0 | -175 | 60.9% | 62% |
| KENT home | +3.5 | 23.5 | +145 | 39.1% | 38% |
| Total | 50.5 | |
OHIO -5.5 when first seen, now OHIO -3.5 · total 52.5 then, 50.5 now. Over -112 / under -108 · DraftKings, 2026-10-02 05:30 UTC.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| OHIO away | +4.0 | 23.3 | 39.5% | +7.5 |
| KENT home | -4.0 | 27.2 | 60.5% | -7.5 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| OHIO away | -10.5 | 33.4 | 76.2% | -7.0 |
| KENT home | +10.5 | 22.9 | 23.8% | +7.0 |
| Total | 56.3 | | | +5.8 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | OHIO | KENT |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -6.4132nd | -3.9102nd |
| Defence (cards) | -1.5106th | -3.3135th |
| Card team rating | -7.9127th | -7.2120th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | -10.5109th | -22.4130th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -0.494th | -1.1133rd |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -0.7105th | -1.6131st |
| Card line | KENT -3.8 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 63% | 64% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Matt Vezza OHIO72 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.378
Completion73.5%
TD–INT4-3
Pass attempts, median game14
Pass yards, median game97
Rush yards, median game43
Games this season4
Team throws per game25.8
Dru DeShields KENT75 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.263
Completion58.8%
TD–INT3-3
Pass attempts, median game23
Pass yards, median game126
Rush yards, median game51
Games this season4
Team throws per game24.2
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| OHIO away | 2-2 | 50% | -1.6 | 3-1 | +11.5 |
| KENT home | 2-2 | 50% | -0.9 | 3-1 | +0.3 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
| Team | Split | Streak (4+), and what happened next in 8,097 games |
|---|
| OHIO | all | gone over 5 straight — next game went over 46.2% of the time (2484 cases) |
| OHIO | day | gone over 5 straight — next game went over 46.2% of the time (2484 cases) |
| OHIO | favourite | won 6 straight — next game covered 49.8% of the time (9369 cases) |
| OHIO | away division | failed to cover 4 straight — next game covered 52.7% of the time (6098 cases) |
| KENT | home | gone under 4 straight — next game went over 51.1% of the time (6939 cases) |
| KENT | home division | gone under 4 straight — next game went over 51.1% of the time (6939 cases) |
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Dix Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
Nothing in the news for either side. College publishes no official injury report, so absence of news is not a clean bill of health.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| OHIO | H. Grand QB | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Grand is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to face against the Skyhawks on Saturday. |
| OHIO | N. Poulos QB | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Poulos is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to face against the Skyhawks on Saturday. |
| OHIO | D. Brune RB | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Brune is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against the Skyhawks on Saturday, September 26th. |
| OHIO | R. Perry WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Perry is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against the Skyhawks on Saturday, September 26th. |
| KENT | M. Stephens WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Stephens is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Ohio on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| KENT | D. Armentrout RB | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Armentrout is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Ohio on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| KENT | E. Tucker K | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Tucker is fighting off an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Ohio on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| KENT | W. Bierfeldt WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Bierfeldt is fighting off an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Ohio on Saturday, October 3rd. |