Line has moved -1.0 since we first saw it (CMU -5.5 to CMU -6.5).
Betting
Spread
AKR favouredMarket CMU −6.5Ours CMU −6.4
CMU favouredgap 0.1 toward AKR
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| AKR away | +6.5 | 20.0 | +205 | 31.5% | 31% |
| CMU home | -6.5 | 26.5 | -250 | 68.5% | 69% |
| Total | 46.5 | |
CMU -5.5 when first seen, now CMU -6.5 · total 46.5 then, 46.5 now. Over -115 / under -105 · DraftKings, 2026-10-02 06:00 UTC.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| AKR away | +6.5 | 20.0 | 34.0% | 0.0 |
| CMU home | -6.5 | 26.5 | 66.0% | 0.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| AKR away | +9.5 | 20.4 | 26.4% | +3.0 |
| CMU home | -9.5 | 29.7 | 73.6% | -3.0 |
| Total | 50.1 | | | +3.6 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | AKR | CMU |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -6.3129th | -5.0116th |
| Defence (cards) | -2.2126th | -1.4104th |
| Card team rating | -8.5128th | -6.4114th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | -23.1132nd | -18.7129th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -1.2137th | -0.9125th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -1.8134th | -1.4127th |
| Card line | CMU -6.4 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 92% | 54% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Brayden Roggow AKR68 overall · Sophomore
Points added per play0.035
Completion60.3%
TD–INT2-2
Pass attempts, median game16
Pass yards, median game93
Rush yards, median game-5
Games this season4
Team throws per game32.8
Angel Flores CMU73 ▼1 overall · Senior
Points added per play—
Completion—
TD–INT—
Pass attempts, median game—
Pass yards, median game—
Rush yards, median game—
Games this season0
Team throws per game17.5
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| AKR away | 2-2 | 50% | -3.0 | 2-2 | +2.0 |
| CMU home | 1-3 | 25% | -6.8 | 1-3 | -7.8 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
| Team | Split | Streak (4+), and what happened next in 8,097 games |
|---|
| CMU | home favourite | won 7 straight — next game covered 49.8% of the time (9369 cases) |
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Kelly/Shorts Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
Nothing in the news for either side. College publishes no official injury report, so absence of news is not a clean bill of health.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| AKR | C. Gee RB | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Gee is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against C. Michigan on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| AKR | L. Sivon WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Sivon is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against C. Michigan on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| AKR | J. Riggins WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Riggins is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against C. Michigan on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| AKR | C. Monteiro WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Monteiro is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against C. Michigan on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| AKR | P. Davis WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Davis is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be available against C. Michigan on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| CMU | V. Blue RB | questionable Undisclosed | Tue, Sep 29 | Blue is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Akron on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| CMU | R. VanWetzinga IV FB | questionable Knee | Sun, Sep 27 | anWetzinga is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air if he will be available against Akron on Saturday, October 3th. |
| CMU | J. Allen TE | out Undisclosed | Tue, Sep 15 | VanWetzinga is sidelined with a knee injury, and he will miss an extended period. |