Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MASS wins about 58% of the time at a number like ours.
MASS
Games
4
Plays per game
55.0
Drives per game
11.0
SP+
-6.2 (93rd, offence 101st, defence 82nd)
Returning production
-57% (pass -36%, rush 221%, receiving -11%)
SAC
Games
5
Plays per game
69.8
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
-22.9 (131st, offence 133rd, defence 124th)
Returning production
— (pass —, rush —, receiving —)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MASS
SAC
pass rate, all downs
38%127th
58%9th
pass rate, standard downs
31%127th
47%32nd
pass rate, 1st down
33%118th
46%44th
no-huddle share
8%126th
16%116th
pass rate, passing downs
56%108th
85%2nd
pass rate, red zone
22%125th
51%16th
seconds per play (own drives)
31.615th
28.577th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MASS offence
MASS offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.280
220
30 of 138
success rate
0.450
220
59 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.237
220
65 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.267
220
18 of 138
rush: success rate
0.481
220
39 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.022
220
47 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.362
220
44 of 138
pass: success rate
0.407
220
94 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.671
220
39 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.510
220
50 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.302
220
81 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.520
220
18 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.141
220
40 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.550
220
128 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.889
220
72 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.095
220
12 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.073
220
39 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.023
220
6 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.000
220
131 of 138
SAC offence
SAC offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.061
349
131 of 138
success rate
0.418
349
95 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.005
349
136 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.089
349
131 of 138
rush: success rate
0.476
349
41 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.705
349
131 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.002
349
123 of 138
pass: success rate
0.387
349
103 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.274
349
132 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.496
349
64 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.228
349
126 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.691
349
121 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.252
349
135 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
349
70 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.552
349
129 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.169
349
108 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.083
349
58 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.086
349
132 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.100
349
62 of 138
MASS defence
MASS defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.139
273
11 of 138
success rate
0.366
273
45 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.020
273
6 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.277
273
4 of 138
rush: success rate
0.353
273
35 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.316
273
1 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.046
273
44 of 138
pass: success rate
0.389
273
65 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.531
273
63 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.421
273
47 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.263
273
53 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.567
273
38 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.218
273
101 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.706
273
64 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.500
273
1 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.161
273
69 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.088
273
50 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.073
273
100 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.300
273
123 of 138
SAC defence
SAC defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.125
303
97 of 138
success rate
0.360
303
40 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.417
303
128 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.037
303
43 of 138
rush: success rate
0.323
303
22 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.113
303
121 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.341
303
119 of 138
pass: success rate
0.414
303
82 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.674
303
105 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.436
303
58 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.208
303
14 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.912
303
83 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.180
303
49 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.500
303
9 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.821
303
100 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.122
303
15 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.089
303
53 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.033
303
7 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.200
303
72 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs