Line has moved +0.5 since we first saw it (KENT -3 to KENT -2.5).
Betting
Spread
BALL favouredMarket KENT −2.5Ours KENT −5.1
KENT favouredgap 2.6 toward KENT
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| BALL away | +2.5 | 24.5 | +114 | 44.9% | 44% |
| KENT home | -2.5 | 27.0 | -135 | 55.1% | 57% |
| Total | 51.5 | |
KENT -3 when first seen, now KENT -2.5 · total 49.5 then, 51.5 now. The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| BALL away | +5.0 | 23.2 | 36.9% | +2.5 |
| KENT home | -5.0 | 28.3 | 63.1% | -2.5 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| BALL away | +1.0 | 26.9 | 47.2% | -1.5 |
| KENT home | -1.0 | 27.9 | 52.8% | +1.5 |
| Total | 54.8 | | | +3.3 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | BALL | KENT |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -6.7133rd | -3.9102nd |
| Defence (cards) | -1.9112th | -3.3135th |
| Card team rating | -8.6130th | -7.2120th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | -25.0135th | -22.4130th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -1.1135th | -1.1133rd |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -1.8136th | -1.6131st |
| Card line | KENT -5.1 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 6% | 64% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Tyler Mizzell BALL69 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.168
Completion58.1%
TD–INT1-0
Pass attempts, median game2
Pass yards, median game16
Rush yards, median game0
Games this season4
Team throws per game29.2
Dru DeShields KENT75 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.263
Completion58.8%
TD–INT3-3
Pass attempts, median game23
Pass yards, median game126
Rush yards, median game51
Games this season4
Team throws per game24.2
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| BALL away | 1-3 | 25% | -6.0 | 3-1 | +3.3 |
| KENT home | 2-2 | 50% | -0.9 | 3-1 | +0.3 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
| Venue | Dix Stadium · turf · 1054 ft |
| Forecast at kickoff | 66°F, wind 10 mph, rain 0.00 in |
| Rest | BALL 6 days · KENT 7 days |
| Travel | BALL 224 miles, body clock 12:00pm at kickoff, +118 ft elevation |
Who is out (reported)
Nothing in the news for either side. College publishes no official injury report, so absence of news is not a clean bill of health.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| BALL | K. Luster QB | questionable Undisclosed | Mon, Sep 28 | Luster is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Toledo on Saturday. |
| BALL | T. Horton RB | questionable Undisclosed | Mon, Sep 28 | Horton is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Toledo on Saturday. |
| BALL | C. Coonrod TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Coonrod is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will suit up against Toledo on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| BALL | D. Talbert WR | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Talbert is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date. |
| BALL | C. Breveard RB | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Breveard is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Toledo on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| BALL | C. Thompson Jr. WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Thompson is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will play against Toledo on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| KENT | M. Stephens WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Stephens is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Ohio on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| KENT | D. Armentrout RB | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Armentrout is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Ohio on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| KENT | E. Tucker K | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Tucker is fighting off an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Ohio on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| KENT | W. Bierfeldt WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Bierfeldt is fighting off an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Ohio on Saturday, October 3rd. |