Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). NMSU wins about 52% of the time at a number like ours.
UNM
Games
4
Plays per game
66.0
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
7.7 (46th, offence 61st, defence 29th)
Returning production
58% (pass 74%, rush 71%, receiving 43%)
NMSU
Games
4
Plays per game
68.0
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-17.8 (126th, offence 122nd, defence 126th)
Returning production
24% (pass 40%, rush 81%, receiving 30%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
UNM
NMSU
pass rate, all downs
35%132nd
56%18th
pass rate, standard downs
30%129th
49%14th
pass rate, 1st down
35%114th
48%34th
no-huddle share
22%108th
82%42nd
pass rate, passing downs
46%133rd
71%31st
pass rate, red zone
19%130th
50%18th
seconds per play (own drives)
33.82nd
26.2117th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
UNM offence
UNM offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.163
264
67 of 138
success rate
0.417
264
96 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.235
264
66 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.264
264
19 of 138
rush: success rate
0.462
264
59 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.126
264
18 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.021
264
129 of 138
pass: success rate
0.337
264
129 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.542
264
71 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.473
264
90 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.287
264
94 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.285
264
44 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.140
264
38 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
264
8 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.273
264
52 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.117
264
34 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.087
264
69 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.030
264
14 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
59.600
264
138 of 138
NMSU offence
NMSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.121
272
83 of 138
success rate
0.438
272
73 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.397
272
17 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.048
272
94 of 138
rush: success rate
0.454
272
66 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.990
272
59 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.281
272
62 of 138
pass: success rate
0.441
272
69 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.780
272
21 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.473
272
91 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.360
272
40 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.045
272
82 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.168
272
69 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.684
272
100 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.762
272
77 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.176
272
117 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.092
272
81 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.085
272
131 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
75.600
272
3 of 138
UNM defence
UNM defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.146
237
7 of 138
success rate
0.321
237
13 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.374
237
116 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.145
237
18 of 138
rush: success rate
0.307
237
13 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.926
237
74 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.086
237
58 of 138
pass: success rate
0.351
237
28 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.828
237
126 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.368
237
12 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.247
237
36 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
1.917
237
3 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.246
237
119 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.500
237
8 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.583
237
21 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.249
237
137 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.169
237
133 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.080
237
116 of 138
opponent average starting field position
77.400
237
135 of 138
NMSU defence
NMSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.158
265
108 of 138
success rate
0.423
265
94 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.230
265
71 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.150
265
116 of 138
rush: success rate
0.425
265
87 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.014
265
95 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.199
265
86 of 138
pass: success rate
0.421
265
91 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.469
265
51 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.477
265
90 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.315
265
100 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.156
265
109 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.187
265
56 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
265
133 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.346
265
124 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.121
265
14 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.079
265
35 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.042
265
22 of 138
opponent average starting field position
65.600
265
2 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs