Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). UTEP wins about 54% of the time at a number like ours.
UTEP
Games
4
Plays per game
56.5
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-24.0 (134th, offence 128th, defence 135th)
Returning production
-1% (pass 18%, rush -31%, receiving 15%)
NIU
Games
4
Plays per game
66.2
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-23.9 (133rd, offence 133rd, defence 129th)
Returning production
44% (pass 138%, rush 29%, receiving 93%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
UTEP
NIU
pass rate, all downs
43%108th
60%4th
pass rate, standard downs
40%81st
50%13th
pass rate, 1st down
44%57th
56%6th
no-huddle share
75%53rd
55%79th
pass rate, passing downs
48%130th
79%6th
pass rate, red zone
46%30th
45%36th
seconds per play (own drives)
31.221st
27.593rd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
UTEP offence
UTEP offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.179
226
138 of 138
success rate
0.367
226
124 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.092
226
127 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.197
226
136 of 138
rush: success rate
0.357
226
128 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.867
226
95 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.037
226
131 of 138
pass: success rate
0.402
226
97 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.371
226
118 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.442
226
115 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.200
226
135 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.516
226
133 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.240
226
131 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.500
226
135 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.700
226
136 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.217
226
137 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.173
226
137 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.044
226
48 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.800
226
100 of 138
NIU offence
NIU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.121
265
137 of 138
success rate
0.362
265
127 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.190
265
90 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.112
265
134 of 138
rush: success rate
0.381
265
117 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.877
265
93 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.007
265
122 of 138
pass: success rate
0.366
265
118 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.414
265
108 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.442
265
114 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.215
265
131 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.560
265
130 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.210
265
113 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.765
265
58 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.545
265
137 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.177
265
118 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.132
265
132 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.045
265
51 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.300
265
43 of 138
UTEP defence
UTEP defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.252
254
130 of 138
success rate
0.472
254
131 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.209
254
63 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.136
254
112 of 138
rush: success rate
0.439
254
104 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.922
254
71 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.512
254
137 of 138
pass: success rate
0.528
254
138 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.571
254
78 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.508
254
116 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.369
254
129 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.969
254
91 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.223
254
105 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
254
52 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.500
254
128 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.126
254
17 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.094
254
59 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.031
254
4 of 138
opponent average starting field position
67.400
254
11 of 138
NIU defence
NIU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.159
268
109 of 138
success rate
0.444
268
111 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.323
268
106 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.110
268
98 of 138
rush: success rate
0.411
268
76 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.076
268
113 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.260
268
99 of 138
pass: success rate
0.492
268
128 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.489
268
55 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.478
268
92 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.372
268
130 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.902
268
77 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.202
268
79 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.579
268
19 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.731
268
96 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.127
268
19 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.086
268
47 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.041
268
19 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.700
268
42 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs