Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). AF wins about 80% of the time at a number like ours.
UTEP
Games
4
Plays per game
56.5
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-24.0 (134th, offence 128th, defence 135th)
Returning production
-1% (pass 18%, rush -31%, receiving 15%)
AF
Games
3
Plays per game
77.7
Drives per game
10.7
SP+
-3.4 (83rd, offence 74th, defence 94th)
Returning production
57% (pass 102%, rush 70%, receiving 13%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
UTEP
AF
pass rate, all downs
43%108th
16%137th
pass rate, standard downs
40%81st
12%138th
pass rate, 1st down
44%57th
10%138th
no-huddle share
75%53rd
7%129th
pass rate, passing downs
48%130th
30%137th
pass rate, red zone
46%30th
16%134th
seconds per play (own drives)
31.221st
30.243rd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
UTEP offence
UTEP offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.179
226
138 of 138
success rate
0.367
226
124 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.092
226
127 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.197
226
136 of 138
rush: success rate
0.357
226
128 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.867
226
95 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.037
226
131 of 138
pass: success rate
0.402
226
97 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.371
226
118 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.442
226
115 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.200
226
135 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.516
226
133 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.240
226
131 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.500
226
135 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.700
226
136 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.217
226
137 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.173
226
137 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.044
226
48 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.800
226
100 of 138
AF offence
AF offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.297
233
22 of 138
success rate
0.489
233
32 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.083
233
129 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.336
233
8 of 138
rush: success rate
0.511
233
20 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.966
233
70 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.290
233
59 of 138
pass: success rate
0.417
233
86 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.877
233
9 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.554
233
24 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.286
233
95 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.836
233
6 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.068
233
1 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.808
233
33 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.316
233
47 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.064
233
3 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.021
233
2 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.043
233
43 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.300
233
26 of 138
UTEP defence
UTEP defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.252
254
130 of 138
success rate
0.472
254
131 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.209
254
63 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.136
254
112 of 138
rush: success rate
0.439
254
104 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.922
254
71 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.512
254
137 of 138
pass: success rate
0.528
254
138 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.571
254
78 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.508
254
116 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.369
254
129 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.969
254
91 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.223
254
105 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
254
52 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.500
254
128 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.126
254
17 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.094
254
59 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.031
254
4 of 138
opponent average starting field position
67.400
254
11 of 138
AF defence
AF defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.004
173
53 of 138
success rate
0.347
173
27 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.430
173
130 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.125
173
107 of 138
rush: success rate
0.398
173
65 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.118
173
122 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.064
173
15 of 138
pass: success rate
0.312
173
14 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.867
173
131 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.411
173
37 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.230
173
29 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.866
173
71 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.216
173
95 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
173
44 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.000
173
111 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.150
173
49 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.075
173
28 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.075
173
101 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.900
173
44 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs