Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). UNLV wins about 58% of the time at a number like ours.
UNLV
Games
4
Plays per game
70.2
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
-2.4 (78th, offence 75th, defence 89th)
Returning production
15% (pass 4%, rush 31%, receiving 14%)
SJSU
Games
4
Plays per game
70.8
Drives per game
13.0
SP+
-15.1 (119th, offence 125th, defence 105th)
Returning production
4% (pass -8%, rush 36%, receiving 3%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
UNLV
SJSU
pass rate, all downs
47%77th
54%23rd
pass rate, standard downs
40%84th
50%11th
pass rate, 1st down
38%100th
51%19th
no-huddle share
36%94th
78%49th
pass rate, passing downs
63%71st
62%77th
pass rate, red zone
37%74th
55%9th
seconds per play (own drives)
27.299th
24.5132nd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
UNLV offence
UNLV offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.053
281
107 of 138
success rate
0.384
281
118 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.219
281
73 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.061
281
89 of 138
rush: success rate
0.397
281
106 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.908
281
83 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.135
281
97 of 138
pass: success rate
0.389
281
102 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.610
281
53 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.456
281
104 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.227
281
127 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.219
281
56 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.130
281
25 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
281
108 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.955
281
123 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.157
281
91 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.096
281
89 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.060
281
83 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.600
281
40 of 138
SJSU offence
SJSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.082
283
100 of 138
success rate
0.396
283
111 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.224
283
69 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.014
283
118 of 138
rush: success rate
0.364
283
124 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.964
283
71 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.240
283
71 of 138
pass: success rate
0.429
283
78 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.447
283
102 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.462
283
98 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.273
283
103 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.182
283
61 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.186
283
91 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.571
283
124 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.360
283
104 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.152
283
82 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.085
283
65 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.067
283
104 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.300
283
45 of 138
UNLV defence
UNLV defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.076
267
76 of 138
success rate
0.404
267
76 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.154
267
43 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.124
267
106 of 138
rush: success rate
0.477
267
127 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.747
267
23 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.118
267
66 of 138
pass: success rate
0.351
267
29 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.696
267
110 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.466
267
84 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.286
267
79 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.606
267
138 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.133
267
13 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
267
117 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.478
267
77 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.161
267
70 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.071
267
20 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.090
267
128 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.700
267
115 of 138
SJSU defence
SJSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.066
287
75 of 138
success rate
0.436
287
104 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.070
287
19 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.106
287
96 of 138
rush: success rate
0.476
287
126 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.876
287
54 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.131
287
71 of 138
pass: success rate
0.418
287
89 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.278
287
8 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.510
287
120 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.270
287
57 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.931
287
86 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.169
287
37 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
287
115 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.433
287
74 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.136
287
34 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.070
287
18 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.066
287
88 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.200
287
18 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs