Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). NIU wins about 52% of the time at a number like ours.
NEV
Games
4
Plays per game
64.0
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-6.5 (95th, offence 103rd, defence 87th)
Returning production
36% (pass -130%, rush -12%, receiving 41%)
NIU
Games
4
Plays per game
66.2
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-23.9 (133rd, offence 133rd, defence 129th)
Returning production
44% (pass 138%, rush 29%, receiving 93%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
NEV
NIU
pass rate, all downs
44%99th
60%4th
pass rate, standard downs
37%107th
50%13th
pass rate, 1st down
42%76th
56%6th
no-huddle share
73%57th
55%79th
pass rate, passing downs
59%92nd
79%6th
pass rate, red zone
28%117th
45%36th
seconds per play (own drives)
26.5111th
27.593rd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
NEV offence
NEV offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.093
256
96 of 138
success rate
0.414
256
99 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.295
256
44 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.218
256
35 of 138
rush: success rate
0.493
256
31 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.089
256
23 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.015
256
128 of 138
pass: success rate
0.324
256
133 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.691
256
35 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.466
256
95 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.305
256
76 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.236
256
52 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.197
256
100 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.640
256
112 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.045
256
62 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.129
256
47 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.074
256
42 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.055
256
74 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.300
256
28 of 138
NIU offence
NIU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.121
265
137 of 138
success rate
0.362
265
127 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.190
265
90 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.112
265
134 of 138
rush: success rate
0.381
265
117 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.877
265
93 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.007
265
122 of 138
pass: success rate
0.366
265
118 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.414
265
108 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.442
265
114 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.215
265
131 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.560
265
130 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.210
265
113 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.765
265
58 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.545
265
137 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.177
265
118 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.132
265
132 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.045
265
51 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.300
265
43 of 138
NEV defence
NEV defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.149
304
100 of 138
success rate
0.421
304
90 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.120
304
31 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.125
304
108 of 138
rush: success rate
0.438
304
103 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.874
304
52 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.271
304
102 of 138
pass: success rate
0.422
304
93 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.535
304
64 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.474
304
89 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.305
304
91 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.272
304
120 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.146
304
22 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.625
304
33 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.240
304
61 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.112
304
7 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.063
304
6 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.049
304
39 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.800
304
43 of 138
NIU defence
NIU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.159
268
109 of 138
success rate
0.444
268
111 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.323
268
106 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.110
268
98 of 138
rush: success rate
0.411
268
76 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.076
268
113 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.260
268
99 of 138
pass: success rate
0.492
268
128 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.489
268
55 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.478
268
92 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.372
268
130 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.902
268
77 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.202
268
79 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.579
268
19 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.731
268
96 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.127
268
19 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.086
268
47 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.041
268
19 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.700
268
42 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs