Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). UNLV wins about 59% of the time at a number like ours.
NDSU
Games
4
Plays per game
65.0
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
7.8 (45th, offence 54th, defence 33rd)
Returning production
— (pass —, rush —, receiving —)
UNLV
Games
4
Plays per game
70.2
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
-2.4 (78th, offence 75th, defence 89th)
Returning production
15% (pass 4%, rush 31%, receiving 14%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
NDSU
UNLV
pass rate, all downs
40%121st
47%77th
pass rate, standard downs
32%123rd
40%84th
pass rate, 1st down
29%129th
38%100th
no-huddle share
8%125th
36%94th
pass rate, passing downs
58%96th
63%71st
pass rate, red zone
36%78th
37%74th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.240th
27.299th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
NDSU offence
NDSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.157
260
70 of 138
success rate
0.400
260
107 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.414
260
15 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.040
260
99 of 138
rush: success rate
0.349
260
131 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.081
260
25 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.377
260
38 of 138
pass: success rate
0.485
260
38 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.794
260
20 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.456
260
103 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.275
260
101 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.826
260
107 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.191
260
94 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.692
260
97 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.083
260
60 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.115
260
32 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.069
260
28 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.046
260
54 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.400
260
72 of 138
UNLV offence
UNLV offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.053
281
107 of 138
success rate
0.384
281
118 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.219
281
73 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.061
281
89 of 138
rush: success rate
0.397
281
106 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.908
281
83 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.135
281
97 of 138
pass: success rate
0.389
281
102 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.610
281
53 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.456
281
104 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.227
281
127 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.219
281
56 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.130
281
25 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
281
108 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.955
281
123 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.157
281
91 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.096
281
89 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.060
281
83 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.600
281
40 of 138
NDSU defence
NDSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.156
240
5 of 138
success rate
0.392
240
68 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.024
240
9 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.231
240
7 of 138
rush: success rate
0.398
240
67 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.705
240
14 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.030
240
23 of 138
pass: success rate
0.390
240
67 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.438
240
40 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.488
240
100 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.184
240
4 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.646
240
51 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.180
240
48 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.714
240
68 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.722
240
4 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.183
240
101 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.104
240
77 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.079
240
112 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.300
240
97 of 138
UNLV defence
UNLV defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.076
267
76 of 138
success rate
0.404
267
76 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.154
267
43 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.124
267
106 of 138
rush: success rate
0.477
267
127 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.747
267
23 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.118
267
66 of 138
pass: success rate
0.351
267
29 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.696
267
110 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.466
267
84 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.286
267
79 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.606
267
138 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.133
267
13 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
267
117 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.478
267
77 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.161
267
70 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.071
267
20 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.090
267
128 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.700
267
115 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs