Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). GAST wins about 73% of the time at a number like ours.
NIU
Games
4
Plays per game
66.2
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-23.9 (133rd, offence 133rd, defence 129th)
Returning production
44% (pass 138%, rush 29%, receiving 93%)
GAST
Games
4
Plays per game
71.5
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-11.2 (111th, offence 85th, defence 125th)
Returning production
47% (pass 64%, rush 127%, receiving 28%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
NIU
GAST
pass rate, all downs
60%4th
46%88th
pass rate, standard downs
50%13th
41%77th
pass rate, 1st down
56%6th
43%70th
no-huddle share
55%79th
85%35th
pass rate, passing downs
79%6th
61%84th
pass rate, red zone
45%36th
30%109th
seconds per play (own drives)
27.593rd
29.462nd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
NIU offence
NIU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.121
265
137 of 138
success rate
0.362
265
127 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.190
265
90 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.112
265
134 of 138
rush: success rate
0.381
265
117 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.877
265
93 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.007
265
122 of 138
pass: success rate
0.366
265
118 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.414
265
108 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.442
265
114 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.215
265
131 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.560
265
130 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.210
265
113 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.765
265
58 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.545
265
137 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.177
265
118 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.132
265
132 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.045
265
51 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.300
265
43 of 138
GAST offence
GAST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.251
286
39 of 138
success rate
0.479
286
39 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.296
286
43 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.184
286
43 of 138
rush: success rate
0.444
286
77 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.019
286
50 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.389
286
33 of 138
pass: success rate
0.520
286
21 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.560
286
67 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.491
286
72 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.444
286
6 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.301
286
40 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.176
286
82 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.632
286
114 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.345
286
44 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.105
286
18 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.052
286
13 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.052
286
64 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.700
286
86 of 138
NIU defence
NIU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.159
268
109 of 138
success rate
0.444
268
111 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.323
268
106 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.110
268
98 of 138
rush: success rate
0.411
268
76 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.076
268
113 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.260
268
99 of 138
pass: success rate
0.492
268
128 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.489
268
55 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.478
268
92 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.372
268
130 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.902
268
77 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.202
268
79 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.579
268
19 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.731
268
96 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.127
268
19 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.086
268
47 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.041
268
19 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.700
268
42 of 138
GAST defence
GAST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.024
242
66 of 138
success rate
0.380
242
59 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.294
242
94 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.174
242
121 of 138
rush: success rate
0.409
242
74 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.187
242
132 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.057
242
18 of 138
pass: success rate
0.365
242
40 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.383
242
28 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.449
242
70 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.256
242
46 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.091
242
107 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.209
242
87 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
1.000
242
138 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.227
242
59 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.178
242
88 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.116
242
101 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
242
69 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.400
242
39 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs