Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). UNM wins about 59% of the time at a number like ours.
CMU
Games
4
Plays per game
57.0
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
-18.7 (129th, offence 136th, defence 100th)
Returning production
54% (pass 9%, rush 123%, receiving 65%)
UNM
Games
4
Plays per game
66.0
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
7.7 (46th, offence 61st, defence 29th)
Returning production
58% (pass 74%, rush 71%, receiving 43%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
CMU
UNM
pass rate, all downs
35%133rd
35%132nd
pass rate, standard downs
25%133rd
30%129th
pass rate, 1st down
32%121st
35%114th
no-huddle share
2%137th
22%108th
pass rate, passing downs
56%107th
46%133rd
pass rate, red zone
20%129th
19%130th
seconds per play (own drives)
32.69th
33.82nd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
CMU offence
CMU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.000
228
123 of 138
success rate
0.351
228
129 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.196
228
87 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.135
228
68 of 138
rush: success rate
0.401
228
102 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.107
228
22 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.180
228
137 of 138
pass: success rate
0.263
228
138 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.423
228
107 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.395
228
131 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.254
228
112 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.181
228
63 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.129
228
22 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.826
228
25 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.000
228
119 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.162
228
94 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.096
228
87 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.066
228
99 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.400
228
51 of 138
UNM offence
UNM offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.163
264
67 of 138
success rate
0.417
264
96 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.235
264
66 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.264
264
19 of 138
rush: success rate
0.462
264
59 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.126
264
18 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.021
264
129 of 138
pass: success rate
0.337
264
129 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.542
264
71 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.473
264
90 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.287
264
94 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.285
264
44 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.140
264
38 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
264
8 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.273
264
52 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.117
264
34 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.087
264
69 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.030
264
14 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
59.600
264
138 of 138
CMU defence
CMU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.166
264
114 of 138
success rate
0.473
264
132 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.118
264
29 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.118
264
104 of 138
rush: success rate
0.496
264
133 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.862
264
43 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.153
264
75 of 138
pass: success rate
0.434
264
102 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.329
264
17 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.522
264
126 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.366
264
126 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.534
264
137 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.135
264
14 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.933
264
136 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.393
264
70 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.144
264
42 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.068
264
14 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.076
264
107 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.300
264
19 of 138
UNM defence
UNM defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.146
237
7 of 138
success rate
0.321
237
13 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.374
237
116 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.145
237
18 of 138
rush: success rate
0.307
237
13 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.926
237
74 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.086
237
58 of 138
pass: success rate
0.351
237
28 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.828
237
126 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.368
237
12 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.247
237
36 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
1.917
237
3 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.246
237
119 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.500
237
8 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.583
237
21 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.249
237
137 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.169
237
133 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.080
237
116 of 138
opponent average starting field position
77.400
237
135 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs