Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). USC wins about 99% of the time at a number like ours.
SJSU
Games
4
Plays per game
70.8
Drives per game
13.0
SP+
-15.1 (119th, offence 125th, defence 105th)
Returning production
4% (pass -8%, rush 36%, receiving 3%)
USC
Games
5
Plays per game
72.2
Drives per game
9.8
SP+
17.8 (13th, offence 3rd, defence 49th)
Returning production
59% (pass 91%, rush 78%, receiving 27%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
SJSU
USC
pass rate, all downs
54%23rd
50%57th
pass rate, standard downs
50%11th
41%80th
pass rate, 1st down
51%19th
38%103rd
no-huddle share
78%49th
82%43rd
pass rate, passing downs
62%77th
78%10th
pass rate, red zone
55%9th
41%55th
seconds per play (own drives)
24.5132nd
29.851st
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
SJSU offence
SJSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.082
283
100 of 138
success rate
0.396
283
111 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.224
283
69 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.014
283
118 of 138
rush: success rate
0.364
283
124 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.964
283
71 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.240
283
71 of 138
pass: success rate
0.429
283
78 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.447
283
102 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.462
283
98 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.273
283
103 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.182
283
61 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.186
283
91 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.571
283
124 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.360
283
104 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.152
283
82 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.085
283
65 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.067
283
104 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.300
283
45 of 138
USC offence
USC offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.307
361
19 of 138
success rate
0.535
361
5 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.187
361
91 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.082
361
85 of 138
rush: success rate
0.486
361
36 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.829
361
107 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.564
361
10 of 138
pass: success rate
0.592
361
4 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.497
361
86 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.558
361
22 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.467
361
3 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.268
361
49 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.168
361
72 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.793
361
43 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.611
361
31 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.089
361
8 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.047
361
10 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.042
361
42 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.300
361
94 of 138
SJSU defence
SJSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.066
287
75 of 138
success rate
0.436
287
104 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.070
287
19 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.106
287
96 of 138
rush: success rate
0.476
287
126 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.876
287
54 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.131
287
71 of 138
pass: success rate
0.418
287
89 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.278
287
8 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.510
287
120 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.270
287
57 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.931
287
86 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.169
287
37 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
287
115 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.433
287
74 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.136
287
34 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.070
287
18 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.066
287
88 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.200
287
18 of 138
USC defence
USC defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.191
294
119 of 138
success rate
0.422
294
91 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.363
294
113 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.080
294
89 of 138
rush: success rate
0.400
294
69 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.961
294
84 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.424
294
127 of 138
pass: success rate
0.462
294
114 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.724
294
115 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.446
294
67 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.374
294
131 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.587
294
41 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.193
294
68 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
294
94 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.179
294
119 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.116
294
9 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.075
294
30 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.041
294
21 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.300
294
125 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs