Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). NAVY wins about 64% of the time at a number like ours.
NAVY
Games
3
Plays per game
69.0
Drives per game
10.7
SP+
-3.7 (85th, offence 78th, defence 95th)
Returning production
14% (pass -3%, rush 19%, receiving 15%)
CLT
Games
4
Plays per game
60.8
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-27.3 (137th, offence 137th, defence 137th)
Returning production
41% (pass 113%, rush 27%, receiving 16%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
NAVY
CLT
pass rate, all downs
23%136th
57%14th
pass rate, standard downs
15%135th
50%12th
pass rate, 1st down
20%134th
52%18th
no-huddle share
28%103rd
35%96th
pass rate, passing downs
42%136th
72%29th
pass rate, red zone
11%135th
49%23rd
seconds per play (own drives)
30.728th
29.853rd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
NAVY offence
NAVY offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.211
207
57 of 138
success rate
0.512
207
17 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.141
207
114 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.339
207
7 of 138
rush: success rate
0.578
207
3 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.050
207
38 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.235
207
138 of 138
pass: success rate
0.283
207
137 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.798
207
18 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.615
207
3 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.254
207
113 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.825
207
8 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.099
207
7 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.957
207
3 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.750
207
22 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.164
207
100 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.116
207
121 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.048
207
58 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.700
207
36 of 138
CLT offence
CLT offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.095
243
134 of 138
success rate
0.362
243
126 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.060
243
132 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.155
243
135 of 138
rush: success rate
0.365
243
123 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.760
243
125 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.024
243
118 of 138
pass: success rate
0.376
243
112 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.288
243
128 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.444
243
112 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.205
243
133 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.384
243
137 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.279
243
137 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.571
243
123 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.312
243
133 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.173
243
114 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.103
243
103 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.070
243
110 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.900
243
17 of 138
NAVY defence
NAVY defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.158
179
107 of 138
success rate
0.391
179
67 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.407
179
125 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.020
179
48 of 138
rush: success rate
0.333
179
29 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.899
179
64 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.430
179
128 of 138
pass: success rate
0.481
179
124 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.775
179
119 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.417
179
45 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.344
179
118 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.711
179
57 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.207
179
84 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
179
132 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.429
179
73 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.145
179
43 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.117
179
103 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.028
179
1 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.200
179
17 of 138
CLT defence
CLT defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.165
284
113 of 138
success rate
0.472
284
129 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.181
284
50 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.097
284
94 of 138
rush: success rate
0.433
284
94 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.102
284
119 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.343
284
120 of 138
pass: success rate
0.520
284
137 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.294
284
12 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.482
284
95 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.449
284
138 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.793
284
63 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.247
284
120 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
284
107 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.037
284
113 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.137
284
36 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.106
284
80 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.032
284
5 of 138
opponent average starting field position
66.300
284
7 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs