Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ARMY wins about 76% of the time at a number like ours.
ARMY
Games
3
Plays per game
67.3
Drives per game
10.0
SP+
-0.8 (72nd, offence 75th, defence 77th)
Returning production
80% (pass 63%, rush 89%, receiving 83%)
RICE
Games
4
Plays per game
63.8
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
-15.1 (119th, offence 119th, defence 116th)
Returning production
39% (pass -317%, rush 77%, receiving 54%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
ARMY
RICE
pass rate, all downs
16%138th
25%134th
pass rate, standard downs
13%137th
18%134th
pass rate, 1st down
17%136th
17%135th
no-huddle share
10%122nd
58%76th
pass rate, red zone
10%137th
5%138th
pass rate, passing downs
25%138th
43%135th
seconds per play (own drives)
34.01st
30.532nd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
ARMY offence
ARMY offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.365
202
10 of 138
success rate
0.550
202
4 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.029
202
135 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.395
202
3 of 138
rush: success rate
0.576
202
4 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.988
202
61 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.320
202
52 of 138
pass: success rate
0.500
202
29 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.201
202
137 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.610
202
4 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.289
202
92 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.827
202
7 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.097
202
4 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
202
6 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.409
202
39 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.045
202
1 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.045
202
6 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.000
202
1 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.600
202
89 of 138
RICE offence
RICE offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.069
255
102 of 138
success rate
0.447
255
61 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.118
255
121 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.127
255
70 of 138
rush: success rate
0.489
255
33 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.986
255
62 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.059
255
133 of 138
pass: success rate
0.333
255
130 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.648
255
47 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.527
255
41 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.239
255
120 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.353
255
33 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.132
255
28 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
255
39 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.833
255
74 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.137
255
64 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.110
255
111 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.027
255
9 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
76.400
255
2 of 138
ARMY defence
ARMY defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.189
162
118 of 138
success rate
0.438
162
105 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.245
162
81 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.177
162
122 of 138
rush: success rate
0.471
162
122 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.971
162
89 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.217
162
91 of 138
pass: success rate
0.413
162
79 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.598
162
88 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.487
162
99 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.327
162
108 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.274
162
121 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.188
162
58 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
162
82 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.833
162
36 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.130
162
24 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.068
162
13 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
162
68 of 138
opponent average starting field position
77.900
162
137 of 138
RICE defence
RICE defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.137
261
98 of 138
success rate
0.429
261
97 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.289
261
92 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.152
261
117 of 138
rush: success rate
0.426
261
88 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.141
261
126 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.150
261
74 of 138
pass: success rate
0.442
261
105 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.497
261
59 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.489
261
101 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.310
261
97 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.766
261
61 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.184
261
52 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.647
261
40 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.280
261
122 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.146
261
44 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.107
261
86 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.038
261
14 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.000
261
14 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs