Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). USF wins about 67% of the time at a number like ours.
TULN
Games
4
Plays per game
61.2
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-7.3 (97th, offence 109th, defence 80th)
Returning production
21% (pass 0%, rush 60%, receiving 28%)
USF
Games
4
Plays per game
58.2
Drives per game
10.5
SP+
3.9 (55th, offence 49th, defence 61st)
Returning production
13% (pass 6%, rush -1%, receiving 24%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
TULN
USF
pass rate, all downs
49%61st
43%103rd
pass rate, standard downs
41%73rd
37%102nd
pass rate, 1st down
44%61st
39%98th
no-huddle share
69%62nd
9%124th
pass rate, passing downs
61%82nd
57%101st
pass rate, red zone
32%101st
18%132nd
seconds per play (own drives)
26.4113th
30.339th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
TULN offence
TULN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.103
245
92 of 138
success rate
0.343
245
131 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.513
245
3 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.161
245
51 of 138
rush: success rate
0.379
245
118 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.346
245
1 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.020
245
120 of 138
pass: success rate
0.304
245
134 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.703
245
34 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.408
245
128 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.237
245
122 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.573
245
129 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.218
245
120 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
245
72 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.474
245
132 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.200
245
133 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.135
245
133 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.065
245
98 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
75.100
245
6 of 138
USF offence
USF offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.234
233
49 of 138
success rate
0.515
233
14 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.149
233
108 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.258
233
21 of 138
rush: success rate
0.523
233
13 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.088
233
24 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.256
233
69 of 138
pass: success rate
0.510
233
25 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.271
233
133 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.577
233
8 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.371
233
32 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.087
233
72 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.200
233
102 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
233
23 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.136
233
10 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.133
233
58 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.099
233
95 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.034
233
18 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.400
233
115 of 138
TULN defence
TULN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.171
283
115 of 138
success rate
0.396
283
72 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.306
283
97 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.112
283
101 of 138
rush: success rate
0.370
283
48 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.074
283
112 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.300
283
110 of 138
pass: success rate
0.443
283
107 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.546
283
69 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.441
283
62 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.317
283
104 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.086
283
106 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.162
283
33 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.769
283
97 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.308
283
65 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.110
283
6 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.067
283
11 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.042
283
24 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.700
283
86 of 138
USF defence
USF defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.020
262
40 of 138
success rate
0.408
262
82 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
0.955
262
3 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.198
262
11 of 138
rush: success rate
0.397
262
64 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.498
262
6 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.186
262
84 of 138
pass: success rate
0.433
262
101 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.445
262
46 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.494
262
104 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.233
262
32 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.434
262
26 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.272
262
132 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.600
262
26 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.125
262
55 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.183
262
102 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.141
262
125 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.042
262
23 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.500
262
99 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs