Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). FAU wins about 72% of the time at a number like ours.
USF
Games
4
Plays per game
58.2
Drives per game
10.5
SP+
3.9 (55th, offence 49th, defence 61st)
Returning production
13% (pass 6%, rush -1%, receiving 24%)
FAU
Games
4
Plays per game
82.5
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-4.2 (87th, offence 64th, defence 106th)
Returning production
68% (pass 93%, rush 107%, receiving 48%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
USF
FAU
pass rate, all downs
43%103rd
54%28th
pass rate, standard downs
37%102nd
48%25th
pass rate, 1st down
39%98th
53%13th
no-huddle share
9%124th
98%7th
pass rate, passing downs
57%101st
68%46th
pass rate, red zone
18%132nd
53%12th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.339th
22.5137th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
USF offence
USF offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.234
233
49 of 138
success rate
0.515
233
14 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.149
233
108 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.258
233
21 of 138
rush: success rate
0.523
233
13 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.088
233
24 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.256
233
69 of 138
pass: success rate
0.510
233
25 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.271
233
133 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.577
233
8 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.371
233
32 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.087
233
72 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.200
233
102 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
233
23 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.136
233
10 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.133
233
58 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.099
233
95 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.034
233
18 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.400
233
115 of 138
FAU offence
FAU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.142
330
74 of 138
success rate
0.436
330
74 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.151
330
107 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.055
330
91 of 138
rush: success rate
0.387
330
113 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.976
330
66 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.230
330
73 of 138
pass: success rate
0.482
330
42 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.287
330
129 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.466
330
94 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.365
330
36 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.746
330
117 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.167
330
66 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.793
330
42 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.962
330
68 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.145
330
74 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.085
330
61 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.061
330
86 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.600
330
90 of 138
USF defence
USF defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.020
262
40 of 138
success rate
0.408
262
82 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
0.955
262
3 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.198
262
11 of 138
rush: success rate
0.397
262
64 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.498
262
6 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.186
262
84 of 138
pass: success rate
0.433
262
101 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.445
262
46 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.494
262
104 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.233
262
32 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.434
262
26 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.272
262
132 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.600
262
26 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.125
262
55 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.183
262
102 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.141
262
125 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.042
262
23 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.500
262
99 of 138
FAU defence
FAU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.209
259
122 of 138
success rate
0.405
259
78 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.543
259
136 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.171
259
120 of 138
rush: success rate
0.389
259
58 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.172
259
130 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.288
259
109 of 138
pass: success rate
0.427
259
97 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.875
259
132 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.463
259
81 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.286
259
76 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.805
259
64 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.191
259
62 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.857
259
124 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.227
259
120 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.158
259
62 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.089
259
52 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.069
259
93 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.100
259
92 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs