Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ARMY wins about 86% of the time at a number like ours.
ECU
Games
4
Plays per game
60.5
Drives per game
12.8
SP+
-2.8 (79th, offence 92nd, defence 69th)
Returning production
14% (pass 0%, rush 27%, receiving 20%)
ARMY
Games
3
Plays per game
67.3
Drives per game
10.0
SP+
-0.8 (72nd, offence 75th, defence 77th)
Returning production
80% (pass 63%, rush 89%, receiving 83%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
ECU
ARMY
pass rate, all downs
52%42nd
16%138th
pass rate, standard downs
44%50th
13%137th
pass rate, 1st down
40%91st
17%136th
no-huddle share
79%47th
10%122nd
pass rate, passing downs
69%42nd
25%138th
pass rate, red zone
47%28th
10%137th
seconds per play (own drives)
24.1134th
34.01st
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
ECU offence
ECU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.056
242
106 of 138
success rate
0.401
242
105 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.166
242
100 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.067
242
124 of 138
rush: success rate
0.368
242
121 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.836
242
105 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.210
242
76 of 138
pass: success rate
0.424
242
82 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.497
242
85 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.491
242
71 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.200
242
134 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.431
242
136 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.197
242
98 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.727
242
81 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.238
242
110 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.182
242
124 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.116
242
120 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.066
242
100 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.400
242
25 of 138
ARMY offence
ARMY offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.365
202
10 of 138
success rate
0.550
202
4 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.029
202
135 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.395
202
3 of 138
rush: success rate
0.576
202
4 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.988
202
61 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.320
202
52 of 138
pass: success rate
0.500
202
29 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.201
202
137 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.610
202
4 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.289
202
92 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.827
202
7 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.097
202
4 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
202
6 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.409
202
39 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.045
202
1 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.045
202
6 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.000
202
1 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.600
202
89 of 138
ECU defence
ECU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.018
288
42 of 138
success rate
0.354
288
35 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.313
288
101 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.024
288
67 of 138
rush: success rate
0.370
288
47 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.183
288
131 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.002
288
31 of 138
pass: success rate
0.345
288
25 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.540
288
65 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.371
288
14 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.327
288
109 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.252
288
11 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.291
288
134 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.583
288
20 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.846
288
37 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.194
288
113 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.160
288
131 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.035
288
9 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.000
288
48 of 138
ARMY defence
ARMY defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.189
162
118 of 138
success rate
0.438
162
105 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.245
162
81 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.177
162
122 of 138
rush: success rate
0.471
162
122 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.971
162
89 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.217
162
91 of 138
pass: success rate
0.413
162
79 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.598
162
88 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.487
162
99 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.327
162
108 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.274
162
121 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.188
162
58 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
162
82 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.833
162
36 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.130
162
24 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.068
162
13 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
162
68 of 138
opponent average starting field position
77.900
162
137 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs