Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ARMY wins about 57% of the time at a number like ours.
AF
Games
3
Plays per game
77.7
Drives per game
10.7
SP+
-3.4 (83rd, offence 74th, defence 94th)
Returning production
57% (pass 102%, rush 70%, receiving 13%)
ARMY
Games
3
Plays per game
67.3
Drives per game
10.0
SP+
-0.8 (72nd, offence 75th, defence 77th)
Returning production
80% (pass 63%, rush 89%, receiving 83%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
AF
ARMY
pass rate, all downs
16%137th
16%138th
pass rate, standard downs
12%138th
13%137th
pass rate, 1st down
10%138th
17%136th
no-huddle share
7%129th
10%122nd
pass rate, passing downs
30%137th
25%138th
pass rate, red zone
16%134th
10%137th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.243rd
34.01st
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
AF offence
AF offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.297
233
22 of 138
success rate
0.489
233
32 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.083
233
129 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.336
233
8 of 138
rush: success rate
0.511
233
20 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.966
233
70 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.290
233
59 of 138
pass: success rate
0.417
233
86 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.877
233
9 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.554
233
24 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.286
233
95 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.836
233
6 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.068
233
1 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.808
233
33 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.316
233
47 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.064
233
3 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.021
233
2 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.043
233
43 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.300
233
26 of 138
ARMY offence
ARMY offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.365
202
10 of 138
success rate
0.550
202
4 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.029
202
135 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.395
202
3 of 138
rush: success rate
0.576
202
4 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.988
202
61 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.320
202
52 of 138
pass: success rate
0.500
202
29 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.201
202
137 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.610
202
4 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.289
202
92 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.827
202
7 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.097
202
4 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
202
6 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.409
202
39 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.045
202
1 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.045
202
6 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.000
202
1 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.600
202
89 of 138
AF defence
AF defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.004
173
53 of 138
success rate
0.347
173
27 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.430
173
130 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.125
173
107 of 138
rush: success rate
0.398
173
65 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.118
173
122 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.064
173
15 of 138
pass: success rate
0.312
173
14 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.867
173
131 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.411
173
37 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.230
173
29 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.866
173
71 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.216
173
95 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
173
44 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.000
173
111 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.150
173
49 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.075
173
28 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.075
173
101 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.900
173
44 of 138
ARMY defence
ARMY defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.189
162
118 of 138
success rate
0.438
162
105 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.245
162
81 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.177
162
122 of 138
rush: success rate
0.471
162
122 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.971
162
89 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.217
162
91 of 138
pass: success rate
0.413
162
79 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.598
162
88 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.487
162
99 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.327
162
108 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.274
162
121 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.188
162
58 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
162
82 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.833
162
36 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.130
162
24 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.068
162
13 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
162
68 of 138
opponent average starting field position
77.900
162
137 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs