Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). TULN wins about 57% of the time at a number like ours.
TLSA
Games
4
Plays per game
64.2
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-3.4 (83rd, offence 101st, defence 60th)
Returning production
41% (pass 69%, rush 11%, receiving 42%)
TULN
Games
4
Plays per game
61.2
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-7.3 (97th, offence 109th, defence 80th)
Returning production
21% (pass 0%, rush 60%, receiving 28%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
TLSA
TULN
pass rate, all downs
48%72nd
49%61st
pass rate, standard downs
46%37th
41%73rd
pass rate, 1st down
42%74th
44%61st
no-huddle share
67%64th
69%62nd
pass rate, passing downs
51%126th
61%82nd
pass rate, red zone
44%38th
32%101st
seconds per play (own drives)
26.8105th
26.4113th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
TLSA offence
TLSA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.117
257
88 of 138
success rate
0.405
257
101 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.142
257
113 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.227
257
32 of 138
rush: success rate
0.447
257
71 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.035
257
42 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.011
257
121 of 138
pass: success rate
0.361
257
122 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.344
257
122 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.532
257
39 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.151
257
138 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.295
257
42 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.121
257
17 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.929
257
5 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.000
257
120 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.140
257
69 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.070
257
33 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.070
257
111 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.500
257
69 of 138
TULN offence
TULN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.103
245
92 of 138
success rate
0.343
245
131 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.513
245
3 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.161
245
51 of 138
rush: success rate
0.379
245
118 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.346
245
1 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.020
245
120 of 138
pass: success rate
0.304
245
134 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.703
245
34 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.408
245
128 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.237
245
122 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.573
245
129 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.218
245
120 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
245
72 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.474
245
132 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.200
245
133 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.135
245
133 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.065
245
98 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
75.100
245
6 of 138
TLSA defence
TLSA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.070
306
25 of 138
success rate
0.386
306
63 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.035
306
11 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.118
306
24 of 138
rush: success rate
0.415
306
81 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.609
306
9 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.066
306
47 of 138
pass: success rate
0.367
306
44 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.443
306
45 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.428
306
52 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.305
306
93 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.838
306
68 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.192
306
66 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.619
306
31 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.304
306
13 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.147
306
45 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.082
306
42 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.065
306
85 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.900
306
106 of 138
TULN defence
TULN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.171
283
115 of 138
success rate
0.396
283
72 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.306
283
97 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.112
283
101 of 138
rush: success rate
0.370
283
48 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.074
283
112 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.300
283
110 of 138
pass: success rate
0.443
283
107 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.546
283
69 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.441
283
62 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.317
283
104 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.086
283
106 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.162
283
33 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.769
283
97 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.308
283
65 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.110
283
6 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.067
283
11 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.042
283
24 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.700
283
86 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs