Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). UNT wins about 77% of the time at a number like ours.
RICE
Games
4
Plays per game
63.8
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
-15.1 (119th, offence 119th, defence 116th)
Returning production
39% (pass -317%, rush 77%, receiving 54%)
UNT
Games
4
Plays per game
72.8
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-5.7 (91st, offence 47th, defence 120th)
Returning production
3% (pass 2%, rush 3%, receiving 2%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
RICE
UNT
pass rate, all downs
25%134th
51%43rd
pass rate, standard downs
18%134th
48%23rd
pass rate, 1st down
17%135th
45%52nd
no-huddle share
58%76th
62%68th
pass rate, red zone
5%138th
46%29th
pass rate, passing downs
43%135th
60%87th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.532nd
29.656th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
RICE offence
RICE offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.069
255
102 of 138
success rate
0.447
255
61 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.118
255
121 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.127
255
70 of 138
rush: success rate
0.489
255
33 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.986
255
62 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.059
255
133 of 138
pass: success rate
0.333
255
130 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.648
255
47 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.527
255
41 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.239
255
120 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.353
255
33 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.132
255
28 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
255
39 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.833
255
74 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.137
255
64 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.110
255
111 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.027
255
9 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
76.400
255
2 of 138
UNT offence
UNT offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.319
291
17 of 138
success rate
0.505
291
20 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.280
291
48 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.188
291
41 of 138
rush: success rate
0.446
291
73 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.058
291
33 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.467
291
21 of 138
pass: success rate
0.572
291
8 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.461
291
94 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.558
291
20 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.376
291
28 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.271
291
46 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.165
291
64 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
291
69 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.419
291
38 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.113
291
28 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.069
291
29 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.045
291
52 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.100
291
77 of 138
RICE defence
RICE defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.137
261
98 of 138
success rate
0.429
261
97 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.289
261
92 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.152
261
117 of 138
rush: success rate
0.426
261
88 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.141
261
126 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.150
261
74 of 138
pass: success rate
0.442
261
105 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.497
261
59 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.489
261
101 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.310
261
97 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.766
261
61 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.184
261
52 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.647
261
40 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.280
261
122 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.146
261
44 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.107
261
86 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.038
261
14 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.000
261
14 of 138
UNT defence
UNT defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.119
254
92 of 138
success rate
0.445
254
113 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.226
254
69 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.043
254
40 of 138
rush: success rate
0.412
254
77 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.724
254
19 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.453
254
130 of 138
pass: success rate
0.505
254
131 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.846
254
129 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.481
254
93 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.352
254
122 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.483
254
29 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.196
254
74 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.704
254
61 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.875
254
107 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.150
254
51 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.106
254
82 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.043
254
25 of 138
opponent average starting field position
65.700
254
3 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs