Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). TEM wins about 54% of the time at a number like ours.
TEM
Games
4
Plays per game
61.5
Drives per game
9.8
SP+
-6.1 (92nd, offence 67th, defence 112th)
Returning production
37% (pass 0%, rush 23%, receiving 69%)
ECU
Games
4
Plays per game
60.5
Drives per game
12.8
SP+
-2.8 (79th, offence 92nd, defence 69th)
Returning production
14% (pass 0%, rush 27%, receiving 20%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
TEM
ECU
pass rate, all downs
36%131st
52%42nd
pass rate, standard downs
31%128th
44%50th
pass rate, 1st down
29%130th
40%91st
no-huddle share
64%67th
79%47th
pass rate, passing downs
52%124th
69%42nd
pass rate, red zone
33%94th
47%28th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.144th
24.1134th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
TEM offence
TEM offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.237
246
46 of 138
success rate
0.435
246
78 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.301
246
41 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.256
246
23 of 138
rush: success rate
0.461
246
60 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.060
246
32 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.205
246
79 of 138
pass: success rate
0.384
246
108 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.834
246
15 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.475
246
89 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.333
246
56 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.328
246
35 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.169
246
74 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.727
246
83 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.381
246
103 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.089
246
7 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.049
246
11 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.041
246
36 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
74.100
246
16 of 138
ECU offence
ECU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.056
242
106 of 138
success rate
0.401
242
105 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.166
242
100 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.067
242
124 of 138
rush: success rate
0.368
242
121 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.836
242
105 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.210
242
76 of 138
pass: success rate
0.424
242
82 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.497
242
85 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.491
242
71 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.200
242
134 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.431
242
136 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.197
242
98 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.727
242
81 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.238
242
110 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.182
242
124 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.116
242
120 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.066
242
100 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.400
242
25 of 138
TEM defence
TEM defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.209
267
123 of 138
success rate
0.457
267
121 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.202
267
59 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.155
267
118 of 138
rush: success rate
0.455
267
111 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.884
267
58 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.306
267
113 of 138
pass: success rate
0.474
267
121 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.576
267
80 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.497
267
111 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.347
267
120 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.883
267
72 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.110
267
4 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.769
267
96 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.586
267
83 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.109
267
5 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.052
267
2 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.056
267
59 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.400
267
78 of 138
ECU defence
ECU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.018
288
42 of 138
success rate
0.354
288
35 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.313
288
101 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.024
288
67 of 138
rush: success rate
0.370
288
47 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.183
288
131 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.002
288
31 of 138
pass: success rate
0.345
288
25 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.540
288
65 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.371
288
14 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.327
288
109 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.252
288
11 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.291
288
134 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.583
288
20 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.846
288
37 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.194
288
113 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.160
288
131 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.035
288
9 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.000
288
48 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs