Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). TULN wins about 64% of the time at a number like ours.
TULN
Games
4
Plays per game
61.2
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-7.3 (97th, offence 109th, defence 80th)
Returning production
21% (pass 0%, rush 60%, receiving 28%)
CLT
Games
4
Plays per game
60.8
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-27.3 (137th, offence 137th, defence 137th)
Returning production
41% (pass 113%, rush 27%, receiving 16%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
TULN
CLT
pass rate, all downs
49%61st
57%14th
pass rate, standard downs
41%73rd
50%12th
pass rate, 1st down
44%61st
52%18th
no-huddle share
69%62nd
35%96th
pass rate, passing downs
61%82nd
72%29th
pass rate, red zone
32%101st
49%23rd
seconds per play (own drives)
26.4113th
29.853rd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
TULN offence
TULN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.103
245
92 of 138
success rate
0.343
245
131 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.513
245
3 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.161
245
51 of 138
rush: success rate
0.379
245
118 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.346
245
1 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.020
245
120 of 138
pass: success rate
0.304
245
134 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.703
245
34 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.408
245
128 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.237
245
122 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.573
245
129 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.218
245
120 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
245
72 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.474
245
132 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.200
245
133 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.135
245
133 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.065
245
98 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
75.100
245
6 of 138
CLT offence
CLT offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.095
243
134 of 138
success rate
0.362
243
126 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.060
243
132 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.155
243
135 of 138
rush: success rate
0.365
243
123 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.760
243
125 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.024
243
118 of 138
pass: success rate
0.376
243
112 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.288
243
128 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.444
243
112 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.205
243
133 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.384
243
137 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.279
243
137 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.571
243
123 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.312
243
133 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.173
243
114 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.103
243
103 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.070
243
110 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.900
243
17 of 138
TULN defence
TULN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.171
283
115 of 138
success rate
0.396
283
72 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.306
283
97 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.112
283
101 of 138
rush: success rate
0.370
283
48 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.074
283
112 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.300
283
110 of 138
pass: success rate
0.443
283
107 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.546
283
69 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.441
283
62 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.317
283
104 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.086
283
106 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.162
283
33 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.769
283
97 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.308
283
65 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.110
283
6 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.067
283
11 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.042
283
24 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.700
283
86 of 138
CLT defence
CLT defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.165
284
113 of 138
success rate
0.472
284
129 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.181
284
50 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.097
284
94 of 138
rush: success rate
0.433
284
94 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.102
284
119 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.343
284
120 of 138
pass: success rate
0.520
284
137 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.294
284
12 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.482
284
95 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.449
284
138 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.793
284
63 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.247
284
120 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
284
107 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.037
284
113 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.137
284
36 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.106
284
80 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.032
284
5 of 138
opponent average starting field position
66.300
284
7 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs