Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ARMY wins about 64% of the time at a number like ours.
ARMY
Games
3
Plays per game
67.3
Drives per game
10.0
SP+
-0.8 (72nd, offence 75th, defence 77th)
Returning production
80% (pass 63%, rush 89%, receiving 83%)
TLSA
Games
4
Plays per game
64.2
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-3.4 (83rd, offence 101st, defence 60th)
Returning production
41% (pass 69%, rush 11%, receiving 42%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
ARMY
TLSA
pass rate, all downs
16%138th
48%72nd
pass rate, standard downs
13%137th
46%37th
pass rate, 1st down
17%136th
42%74th
no-huddle share
10%122nd
67%64th
pass rate, red zone
10%137th
44%38th
pass rate, passing downs
25%138th
51%126th
seconds per play (own drives)
34.01st
26.8105th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
ARMY offence
ARMY offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.365
202
10 of 138
success rate
0.550
202
4 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.029
202
135 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.395
202
3 of 138
rush: success rate
0.576
202
4 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.988
202
61 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.320
202
52 of 138
pass: success rate
0.500
202
29 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.201
202
137 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.610
202
4 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.289
202
92 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.827
202
7 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.097
202
4 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
202
6 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.409
202
39 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.045
202
1 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.045
202
6 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.000
202
1 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.600
202
89 of 138
TLSA offence
TLSA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.117
257
88 of 138
success rate
0.405
257
101 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.142
257
113 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.227
257
32 of 138
rush: success rate
0.447
257
71 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.035
257
42 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.011
257
121 of 138
pass: success rate
0.361
257
122 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.344
257
122 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.532
257
39 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.151
257
138 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.295
257
42 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.121
257
17 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.929
257
5 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.000
257
120 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.140
257
69 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.070
257
33 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.070
257
111 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.500
257
69 of 138
ARMY defence
ARMY defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.189
162
118 of 138
success rate
0.438
162
105 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.245
162
81 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.177
162
122 of 138
rush: success rate
0.471
162
122 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.971
162
89 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.217
162
91 of 138
pass: success rate
0.413
162
79 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.598
162
88 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.487
162
99 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.327
162
108 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.274
162
121 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.188
162
58 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
162
82 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.833
162
36 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.130
162
24 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.068
162
13 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
162
68 of 138
opponent average starting field position
77.900
162
137 of 138
TLSA defence
TLSA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.070
306
25 of 138
success rate
0.386
306
63 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.035
306
11 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.118
306
24 of 138
rush: success rate
0.415
306
81 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.609
306
9 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.066
306
47 of 138
pass: success rate
0.367
306
44 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.443
306
45 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.428
306
52 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.305
306
93 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.838
306
68 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.192
306
66 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.619
306
31 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.304
306
13 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.147
306
45 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.082
306
42 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.065
306
85 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.900
306
106 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs