Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). UTSA wins about 67% of the time at a number like ours.
NAVY
Games
3
Plays per game
69.0
Drives per game
10.7
SP+
-3.7 (85th, offence 78th, defence 95th)
Returning production
14% (pass -3%, rush 19%, receiving 15%)
UTSA
Games
4
Plays per game
63.2
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
-1.0 (73rd, offence 44th, defence 99th)
Returning production
67% (pass 93%, rush 36%, receiving 61%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
NAVY
UTSA
pass rate, all downs
23%136th
51%48th
pass rate, standard downs
15%135th
44%51st
pass rate, 1st down
20%134th
48%33rd
no-huddle share
28%103rd
84%37th
pass rate, passing downs
42%136th
67%53rd
pass rate, red zone
11%135th
35%87th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.728th
27.397th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
NAVY offence
NAVY offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.211
207
57 of 138
success rate
0.512
207
17 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.141
207
114 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.339
207
7 of 138
rush: success rate
0.578
207
3 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.050
207
38 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.235
207
138 of 138
pass: success rate
0.283
207
137 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.798
207
18 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.615
207
3 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.254
207
113 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.825
207
8 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.099
207
7 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.957
207
3 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.750
207
22 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.164
207
100 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.116
207
121 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.048
207
58 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.700
207
36 of 138
UTSA offence
UTSA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.268
253
35 of 138
success rate
0.474
253
45 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.111
253
124 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.248
253
25 of 138
rush: success rate
0.541
253
9 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.834
253
106 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.294
253
57 of 138
pass: success rate
0.417
253
87 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.459
253
97 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.565
253
14 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.263
253
109 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.075
253
75 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.172
253
79 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.850
253
16 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.542
253
91 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.137
253
66 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.071
253
35 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.067
253
105 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.400
253
104 of 138
NAVY defence
NAVY defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.158
179
107 of 138
success rate
0.391
179
67 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.407
179
125 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.020
179
48 of 138
rush: success rate
0.333
179
29 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.899
179
64 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.430
179
128 of 138
pass: success rate
0.481
179
124 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.775
179
119 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.417
179
45 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.344
179
118 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.711
179
57 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.207
179
84 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
179
132 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.429
179
73 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.145
179
43 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.117
179
103 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.028
179
1 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.200
179
17 of 138
UTSA defence
UTSA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.077
324
77 of 138
success rate
0.432
324
101 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.135
324
36 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.187
324
124 of 138
rush: success rate
0.460
324
114 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.917
324
70 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.084
324
57 of 138
pass: success rate
0.423
324
94 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.380
324
26 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.473
324
88 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.340
324
114 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.280
324
123 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.124
324
10 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.650
324
43 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.714
324
93 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.128
324
21 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.067
324
12 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.061
324
67 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.200
324
74 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs