Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). NAVY wins about 53% of the time at a number like ours.
TLSA
Games
4
Plays per game
64.2
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-3.4 (83rd, offence 101st, defence 60th)
Returning production
41% (pass 69%, rush 11%, receiving 42%)
NAVY
Games
3
Plays per game
69.0
Drives per game
10.7
SP+
-3.7 (85th, offence 78th, defence 95th)
Returning production
14% (pass -3%, rush 19%, receiving 15%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
TLSA
NAVY
pass rate, all downs
48%72nd
23%136th
pass rate, standard downs
46%37th
15%135th
pass rate, 1st down
42%74th
20%134th
no-huddle share
67%64th
28%103rd
pass rate, passing downs
51%126th
42%136th
pass rate, red zone
44%38th
11%135th
seconds per play (own drives)
26.8105th
30.728th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
TLSA offence
TLSA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.117
257
88 of 138
success rate
0.405
257
101 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.142
257
113 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.227
257
32 of 138
rush: success rate
0.447
257
71 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.035
257
42 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.011
257
121 of 138
pass: success rate
0.361
257
122 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.344
257
122 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.532
257
39 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.151
257
138 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.295
257
42 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.121
257
17 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.929
257
5 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.000
257
120 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.140
257
69 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.070
257
33 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.070
257
111 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.500
257
69 of 138
NAVY offence
NAVY offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.211
207
57 of 138
success rate
0.512
207
17 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.141
207
114 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.339
207
7 of 138
rush: success rate
0.578
207
3 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.050
207
38 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.235
207
138 of 138
pass: success rate
0.283
207
137 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.798
207
18 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.615
207
3 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.254
207
113 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.825
207
8 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.099
207
7 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.957
207
3 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.750
207
22 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.164
207
100 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.116
207
121 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.048
207
58 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.700
207
36 of 138
TLSA defence
TLSA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.070
306
25 of 138
success rate
0.386
306
63 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.035
306
11 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.118
306
24 of 138
rush: success rate
0.415
306
81 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.609
306
9 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.066
306
47 of 138
pass: success rate
0.367
306
44 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.443
306
45 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.428
306
52 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.305
306
93 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.838
306
68 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.192
306
66 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.619
306
31 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.304
306
13 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.147
306
45 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.082
306
42 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.065
306
85 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.900
306
106 of 138
NAVY defence
NAVY defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.158
179
107 of 138
success rate
0.391
179
67 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.407
179
125 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.020
179
48 of 138
rush: success rate
0.333
179
29 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.899
179
64 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.430
179
128 of 138
pass: success rate
0.481
179
124 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.775
179
119 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.417
179
45 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.344
179
118 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.711
179
57 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.207
179
84 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
179
132 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.429
179
73 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.145
179
43 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.117
179
103 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.028
179
1 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.200
179
17 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs