Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). UNT wins about 83% of the time at a number like ours.
CLT
Games
4
Plays per game
60.8
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-27.3 (137th, offence 137th, defence 137th)
Returning production
41% (pass 113%, rush 27%, receiving 16%)
UNT
Games
4
Plays per game
72.8
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-5.7 (91st, offence 47th, defence 120th)
Returning production
3% (pass 2%, rush 3%, receiving 2%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
CLT
UNT
pass rate, all downs
57%14th
51%43rd
pass rate, standard downs
50%12th
48%23rd
pass rate, 1st down
52%18th
45%52nd
no-huddle share
35%96th
62%68th
pass rate, passing downs
72%29th
60%87th
pass rate, red zone
49%23rd
46%29th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.853rd
29.656th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
CLT offence
CLT offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.095
243
134 of 138
success rate
0.362
243
126 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.060
243
132 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.155
243
135 of 138
rush: success rate
0.365
243
123 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.760
243
125 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.024
243
118 of 138
pass: success rate
0.376
243
112 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.288
243
128 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.444
243
112 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.205
243
133 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.384
243
137 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.279
243
137 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.571
243
123 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.312
243
133 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.173
243
114 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.103
243
103 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.070
243
110 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.900
243
17 of 138
UNT offence
UNT offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.319
291
17 of 138
success rate
0.505
291
20 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.280
291
48 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.188
291
41 of 138
rush: success rate
0.446
291
73 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.058
291
33 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.467
291
21 of 138
pass: success rate
0.572
291
8 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.461
291
94 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.558
291
20 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.376
291
28 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.271
291
46 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.165
291
64 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
291
69 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.419
291
38 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.113
291
28 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.069
291
29 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.045
291
52 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.100
291
77 of 138
CLT defence
CLT defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.165
284
113 of 138
success rate
0.472
284
129 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.181
284
50 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.097
284
94 of 138
rush: success rate
0.433
284
94 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.102
284
119 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.343
284
120 of 138
pass: success rate
0.520
284
137 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.294
284
12 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.482
284
95 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.449
284
138 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.793
284
63 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.247
284
120 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
284
107 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.037
284
113 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.137
284
36 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.106
284
80 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.032
284
5 of 138
opponent average starting field position
66.300
284
7 of 138
UNT defence
UNT defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.119
254
92 of 138
success rate
0.445
254
113 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.226
254
69 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.043
254
40 of 138
rush: success rate
0.412
254
77 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.724
254
19 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.453
254
130 of 138
pass: success rate
0.505
254
131 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.846
254
129 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.481
254
93 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.352
254
122 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.483
254
29 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.196
254
74 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.704
254
61 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.875
254
107 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.150
254
51 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.106
254
82 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.043
254
25 of 138
opponent average starting field position
65.700
254
3 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs