Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). USF wins about 68% of the time at a number like ours.
TEM
Games
4
Plays per game
61.5
Drives per game
9.8
SP+
-6.1 (92nd, offence 67th, defence 112th)
Returning production
37% (pass 0%, rush 23%, receiving 69%)
USF
Games
4
Plays per game
58.2
Drives per game
10.5
SP+
3.9 (55th, offence 49th, defence 61st)
Returning production
13% (pass 6%, rush -1%, receiving 24%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
TEM
USF
pass rate, all downs
36%131st
43%103rd
pass rate, standard downs
31%128th
37%102nd
pass rate, 1st down
29%130th
39%98th
no-huddle share
64%67th
9%124th
pass rate, passing downs
52%124th
57%101st
pass rate, red zone
33%94th
18%132nd
seconds per play (own drives)
30.144th
30.339th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
TEM offence
TEM offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.237
246
46 of 138
success rate
0.435
246
78 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.301
246
41 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.256
246
23 of 138
rush: success rate
0.461
246
60 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.060
246
32 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.205
246
79 of 138
pass: success rate
0.384
246
108 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.834
246
15 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.475
246
89 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.333
246
56 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.328
246
35 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.169
246
74 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.727
246
83 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.381
246
103 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.089
246
7 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.049
246
11 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.041
246
36 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
74.100
246
16 of 138
USF offence
USF offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.234
233
49 of 138
success rate
0.515
233
14 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.149
233
108 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.258
233
21 of 138
rush: success rate
0.523
233
13 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.088
233
24 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.256
233
69 of 138
pass: success rate
0.510
233
25 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.271
233
133 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.577
233
8 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.371
233
32 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.087
233
72 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.200
233
102 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
233
23 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.136
233
10 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.133
233
58 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.099
233
95 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.034
233
18 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.400
233
115 of 138
TEM defence
TEM defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.209
267
123 of 138
success rate
0.457
267
121 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.202
267
59 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.155
267
118 of 138
rush: success rate
0.455
267
111 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.884
267
58 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.306
267
113 of 138
pass: success rate
0.474
267
121 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.576
267
80 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.497
267
111 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.347
267
120 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.883
267
72 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.110
267
4 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.769
267
96 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.586
267
83 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.109
267
5 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.052
267
2 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.056
267
59 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.400
267
78 of 138
USF defence
USF defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.020
262
40 of 138
success rate
0.408
262
82 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
0.955
262
3 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.198
262
11 of 138
rush: success rate
0.397
262
64 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.498
262
6 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.186
262
84 of 138
pass: success rate
0.433
262
101 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.445
262
46 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.494
262
104 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.233
262
32 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.434
262
26 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.272
262
132 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.600
262
26 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.125
262
55 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.183
262
102 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.141
262
125 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.042
262
23 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.500
262
99 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs