Betting
Spread
TEM favouredMarket USF −6.5Ours USF −8.1
USF favouredgap 1.6 toward USF
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| TEM away | +6.5 | 21.0 | +205 | 31.5% | 32% |
| USF home | -6.5 | 27.5 | -250 | 68.5% | 69% |
| Total | 48.5 | |
USF -6.5 when first seen, now USF -6.5 · total 51.5 then, 48.5 now. Over -108 / under -112 · DraftKings, 2026-10-02 05:30 UTC.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| TEM away | +8.0 | 20.2 | 29.9% | +1.5 |
| USF home | -8.0 | 28.3 | 70.1% | -1.5 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| TEM away | +11.5 | 21.3 | 22.2% | +5.0 |
| USF home | -11.5 | 32.5 | 77.8% | -5.0 |
| Total | 53.8 | | | +5.3 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | TEM | USF |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -2.384th | -1.980th |
| Defence (cards) | -2.2124th | +0.455th |
| Card team rating | -4.597th | -1.673rd |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | -6.192nd | +3.955th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -0.599th | -0.066th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -0.699th | +0.159th |
| Card line | USF -8.1 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 37% | 13% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Ajani Sheppard TEM74 ▲1 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.432
Completion53.4%
TD–INT5-0
Pass attempts, median game15
Pass yards, median game125
Rush yards, median game36
Games this season4
Team throws per game20.2
Michael Van Buren Jr. USF77 ▲2 overall · Junior
Points added per play—
Completion65.9%
TD–INT3-0
Pass attempts, median game24
Pass yards, median game170
Rush yards, median game10
Games this season4
Team throws per game23.5
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| TEM away | 3-0-1 | 100% | +4.9 | 2-2 | +6.3 |
| USF home | 2-2 | 50% | -0.6 | 2-2 | -7.8 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
| Team | Split | Streak (4+), and what happened next in 8,097 games |
|---|
| TEM | all | lost 7 straight — next game covered 50.2% of the time (7379 cases) |
| TEM | underdog | lost 8 straight — next game covered 51.1% of the time (4270 cases) |
| TEM | away underdog | lost 29 straight — next game covered 49.5% of the time (2595 cases) |
| TEM | division | lost 5 straight — next game covered 50.6% of the time (10094 cases) |
| USF | all | won 5 straight — next game covered 50.1% of the time (12375 cases) |
| USF | home | won 7 straight — next game covered 49.8% of the time (9369 cases) |
| USF | home division | covered 5 straight — next game covered 48.8% of the time (3066 cases) |
| USF | home division | won 5 straight — next game covered 50.1% of the time (12375 cases) |
| USF | favourite | won 4 straight — next game covered 50.4% of the time (16696 cases) |
| USF | favourite | gone under 4 straight — next game went over 51.1% of the time (6939 cases) |
| USF | home favourite | won 9 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (5637 cases) |
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Raymond James Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
Nothing in the news for either side. College publishes no official injury report, so absence of news is not a clean bill of health.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| TEM | S. Brown V RB | questionable Undisclosed | Mon, Sep 28 | Brown is suffering with a undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will face South Florida on Saturday |
| TEM | R. Stocksdale WR | questionable Hamstring | Fri, Sep 25 | Stocksdale is dealing with a hamstring injury, and it is unclear if he will face South Florida on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| TEM | C. Logan WR | questionable Undisclosed | Fri, Sep 25 | Logan is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against South Florida on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| TEM | R. Hardy WR | questionable Undisclosed | Fri, Sep 25 | Hardy is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face South Florida on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| TEM | J. Smolik QB | questionable Foot | Fri, Sep 25 | Smolik is suffering with a foot injury, and it is undetermined if he will face South Florida on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| USF | A. Branch WR | questionable Undisclosed | Mon, Sep 28 | Branch is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Temple on Saturday. |