Line has moved +1.5 since we first saw it (UNT -1.5 to UNT -3).
Betting
Spread
UNT favouredMarket TLSA −1.5Ours UNT −2
TLSA favouredgap 3.5 toward UNT
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| UNT away | +1.5 | 28.0 | -108 | 49.6% | 57% |
| TLSA home | -1.5 | 29.5 | -112 | 50.4% | 44% |
| Total | 57.5 | |
UNT -1.5 when first seen, now TLSA -1.5 · total 57.5 then, 57.5 now. The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| UNT away | -2.0 | 29.8 | 56.0% | -3.5 |
| TLSA home | +2.0 | 27.7 | 44.0% | +3.5 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| UNT away | -7.0 | 30.9 | 67.9% | -8.5 |
| TLSA home | +7.0 | 24.1 | 32.1% | +8.5 |
| Total | 55.0 | | | -2.5 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | UNT | TLSA |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -0.769th | -4.7111th |
| Defence (cards) | -1.197th | +0.553rd |
| Card team rating | -1.874th | -4.293rd |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | -5.791st | -3.483rd |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -0.065th | -0.5102nd |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -0.275th | -0.593rd |
| Card line | TLSA +2.0 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 3% | 41% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Tayven Jackson UNT77 ▲3 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.442
Completion74.4%
TD–INT6-2
Pass attempts, median game27
Pass yards, median game252
Rush yards, median game8
Games this season4
Team throws per game35.8
Dexter Williams II TLSA72 ▲2 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.023
Completion57.6%
TD–INT3-0
Pass attempts, median game26
Pass yards, median game164
Rush yards, median game8
Games this season3
Team throws per game28.8
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| UNT away | 4-1 | 80% | +9.3 | 4-1 | +14.3 |
| TLSA home | 2-3 | 40% | -0.4 | 1-4 | -5.7 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
| Team | Split | Streak (4+), and what happened next in 8,097 games |
|---|
| UNT | away underdog | lost 5 straight — next game covered 50.6% of the time (10094 cases) |
| UNT | away underdog | gone over 6 straight — next game went over 45.6% of the time (1124 cases) |
| TLSA | all | gone under 4 straight — next game went over 51.1% of the time (6939 cases) |
| TLSA | favourite | gone under 4 straight — next game went over 51.1% of the time (6939 cases) |
| TLSA | home division | lost 6 straight — next game covered 50.2% of the time (7379 cases) |
Streak picker (total): bets the under — UNT has gone over 6 straight as away underdog.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
| Venue | Chapman Stadium · turf · 773 ft |
| Forecast at kickoff | 72°F, wind 7 mph, rain 0.69 in |
| Rest | UNT 5 days · TLSA 5 days |
| Travel | UNT 215 miles, body clock 8:00pm at kickoff, +121 ft elevation |
Who is out (reported)
Nothing in the news for either side. College publishes no official injury report, so absence of news is not a clean bill of health.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| UNT | J. Martin WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Martin has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and he will be not available against Tulsa on Thursday. |
| UNT | V. Aderungboye TE | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Aderungboye is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery. |
| UNT | D. Clemens TE | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Clemens is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery. |
| UNT | J. Tyre WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Tyre is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery. |
| UNT | B. Haygood RB | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Haygood is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery. |
| TLSA | G. Tempest WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Tempest is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery. |
| TLSA | J. Calloway WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Calloway is dealing due to an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery. |
| TLSA | B. Hayes QB | questionable Knee | Sun, Sep 27 | Hayes is dealing due to a knee injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against North Texas on Thursday, October 1th. |