Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). NAVY wins about 59% of the time at a number like ours.
NAVY
Games
3
Plays per game
69.0
Drives per game
10.7
SP+
-3.7 (85th, offence 78th, defence 95th)
Returning production
14% (pass -3%, rush 19%, receiving 15%)
UAB
Games
4
Plays per game
66.2
Drives per game
10.0
SP+
-14.3 (118th, offence 116th, defence 115th)
Returning production
80% (pass 100%, rush 63%, receiving 74%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
NAVY
UAB
pass rate, all downs
23%136th
41%118th
pass rate, standard downs
15%135th
33%121st
pass rate, 1st down
20%134th
31%123rd
no-huddle share
28%103rd
76%52nd
pass rate, passing downs
42%136th
60%86th
pass rate, red zone
11%135th
27%119th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.728th
30.047th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
NAVY offence
NAVY offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.211
207
57 of 138
success rate
0.512
207
17 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.141
207
114 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.339
207
7 of 138
rush: success rate
0.578
207
3 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.050
207
38 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.235
207
138 of 138
pass: success rate
0.283
207
137 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.798
207
18 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.615
207
3 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.254
207
113 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.825
207
8 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.099
207
7 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.957
207
3 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.750
207
22 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.164
207
100 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.116
207
121 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.048
207
58 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.700
207
36 of 138
UAB offence
UAB offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.050
265
108 of 138
success rate
0.423
265
88 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.185
265
92 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.135
265
69 of 138
rush: success rate
0.437
265
82 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.994
265
58 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.009
265
127 of 138
pass: success rate
0.413
265
91 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.455
265
98 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.441
265
117 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.380
265
25 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.137
265
67 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.159
265
58 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.739
265
75 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.889
265
126 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.158
265
92 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.106
265
108 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.053
265
70 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.600
265
91 of 138
NAVY defence
NAVY defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.158
179
107 of 138
success rate
0.391
179
67 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.407
179
125 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.020
179
48 of 138
rush: success rate
0.333
179
29 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.899
179
64 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.430
179
128 of 138
pass: success rate
0.481
179
124 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.775
179
119 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.417
179
45 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.344
179
118 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.711
179
57 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.207
179
84 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
179
132 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.429
179
73 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.145
179
43 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.117
179
103 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.028
179
1 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.200
179
17 of 138
UAB defence
UAB defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.053
249
73 of 138
success rate
0.450
249
116 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.044
249
14 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.093
249
93 of 138
rush: success rate
0.473
249
125 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.942
249
78 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.011
249
29 of 138
pass: success rate
0.403
249
72 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.275
249
7 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.531
249
130 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.250
249
42 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.430
249
132 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.124
249
9 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.704
249
62 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.870
249
106 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.157
249
61 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.120
249
109 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.036
249
10 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.100
249
27 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs