Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ARMY wins about 64% of the time at a number like ours.
USF
Games
4
Plays per game
58.2
Drives per game
10.5
SP+
3.9 (55th, offence 49th, defence 61st)
Returning production
13% (pass 6%, rush -1%, receiving 24%)
ARMY
Games
3
Plays per game
67.3
Drives per game
10.0
SP+
-0.8 (72nd, offence 75th, defence 77th)
Returning production
80% (pass 63%, rush 89%, receiving 83%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
USF
ARMY
pass rate, all downs
43%103rd
16%138th
pass rate, standard downs
37%102nd
13%137th
pass rate, 1st down
39%98th
17%136th
no-huddle share
9%124th
10%122nd
pass rate, passing downs
57%101st
25%138th
pass rate, red zone
18%132nd
10%137th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.339th
34.01st
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
USF offence
USF offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.234
233
49 of 138
success rate
0.515
233
14 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.149
233
108 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.258
233
21 of 138
rush: success rate
0.523
233
13 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.088
233
24 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.256
233
69 of 138
pass: success rate
0.510
233
25 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.271
233
133 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.577
233
8 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.371
233
32 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.087
233
72 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.200
233
102 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
233
23 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.136
233
10 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.133
233
58 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.099
233
95 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.034
233
18 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.400
233
115 of 138
ARMY offence
ARMY offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.365
202
10 of 138
success rate
0.550
202
4 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.029
202
135 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.395
202
3 of 138
rush: success rate
0.576
202
4 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.988
202
61 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.320
202
52 of 138
pass: success rate
0.500
202
29 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.201
202
137 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.610
202
4 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.289
202
92 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.827
202
7 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.097
202
4 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
202
6 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.409
202
39 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.045
202
1 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.045
202
6 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.000
202
1 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.600
202
89 of 138
USF defence
USF defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.020
262
40 of 138
success rate
0.408
262
82 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
0.955
262
3 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.198
262
11 of 138
rush: success rate
0.397
262
64 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.498
262
6 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.186
262
84 of 138
pass: success rate
0.433
262
101 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.445
262
46 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.494
262
104 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.233
262
32 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.434
262
26 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.272
262
132 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.600
262
26 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.125
262
55 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.183
262
102 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.141
262
125 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.042
262
23 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.500
262
99 of 138
ARMY defence
ARMY defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.189
162
118 of 138
success rate
0.438
162
105 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.245
162
81 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.177
162
122 of 138
rush: success rate
0.471
162
122 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.971
162
89 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.217
162
91 of 138
pass: success rate
0.413
162
79 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.598
162
88 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.487
162
99 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.327
162
108 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.274
162
121 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.188
162
58 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
162
82 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.833
162
36 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.130
162
24 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.068
162
13 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
162
68 of 138
opponent average starting field position
77.900
162
137 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs