Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). WYO wins about 53% of the time at a number like ours.
CONN
Games
4
Plays per game
65.0
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-3.7 (85th, offence 79th, defence 93rd)
Returning production
2% (pass 3%, rush 0%, receiving 2%)
WYO
Games
4
Plays per game
60.2
Drives per game
10.0
SP+
-12.7 (116th, offence 126th, defence 80th)
Returning production
23% (pass 3%, rush 81%, receiving 20%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
CONN
WYO
pass rate, all downs
46%85th
45%93rd
pass rate, standard downs
38%101st
44%52nd
pass rate, 1st down
39%99th
44%63rd
no-huddle share
87%27th
4%134th
pass rate, passing downs
64%62nd
49%129th
pass rate, red zone
22%128th
42%49th
seconds per play (own drives)
27.889th
31.318th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
CONN offence
CONN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.231
260
50 of 138
success rate
0.435
260
79 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.421
260
13 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.207
260
38 of 138
rush: success rate
0.460
260
63 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.021
260
48 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.368
260
41 of 138
pass: success rate
0.426
260
80 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.963
260
6 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.480
260
83 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.341
260
52 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.239
260
51 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.168
260
71 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
260
107 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.625
260
30 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.127
260
45 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.088
260
73 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.038
260
28 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.900
260
65 of 138
WYO offence
WYO offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.156
241
71 of 138
success rate
0.461
241
52 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.088
241
128 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.148
241
61 of 138
rush: success rate
0.465
241
55 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.795
241
116 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.161
241
91 of 138
pass: success rate
0.440
241
70 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.330
241
124 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.503
241
58 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.365
241
38 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.556
241
15 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.140
241
39 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
1.000
241
2 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.958
241
122 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.154
241
86 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.091
241
79 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.062
241
91 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.100
241
78 of 138
CONN defence
CONN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.019
290
61 of 138
success rate
0.386
290
64 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.255
290
85 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.014
290
54 of 138
rush: success rate
0.381
290
54 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.874
290
53 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.066
290
48 of 138
pass: success rate
0.393
290
71 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.502
290
60 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.440
290
61 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.283
290
74 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.648
290
52 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.212
290
91 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.611
290
29 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.720
290
30 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.169
290
79 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.083
290
45 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.086
290
124 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.000
290
69 of 138
WYO defence
WYO defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.123
262
95 of 138
success rate
0.443
262
109 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.091
262
23 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.133
262
110 of 138
rush: success rate
0.462
262
115 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.850
262
41 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.198
262
85 of 138
pass: success rate
0.425
262
95 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.447
262
48 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.503
262
114 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.288
262
80 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.263
262
119 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.145
262
21 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.923
262
134 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.957
262
45 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.130
262
26 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.076
262
33 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.053
262
46 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.700
262
89 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs