Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). JMU wins about 58% of the time at a number like ours.
JMU
Games
4
Plays per game
67.2
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
9.9 (36th, offence 48th, defence 27th)
Returning production
8% (pass 9%, rush 7%, receiving 9%)
CONN
Games
4
Plays per game
65.0
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-3.7 (85th, offence 79th, defence 93rd)
Returning production
2% (pass 3%, rush 0%, receiving 2%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
JMU
CONN
pass rate, all downs
46%89th
46%85th
pass rate, standard downs
41%76th
38%101st
pass rate, 1st down
46%46th
39%99th
no-huddle share
90%22nd
87%27th
pass rate, passing downs
59%95th
64%62nd
pass rate, red zone
33%92nd
22%128th
seconds per play (own drives)
27.790th
27.889th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
JMU offence
JMU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.293
269
26 of 138
success rate
0.476
269
42 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.223
269
70 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.245
269
26 of 138
rush: success rate
0.497
269
27 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.005
269
55 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.368
269
40 of 138
pass: success rate
0.458
269
57 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.527
269
75 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.525
269
42 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.338
269
54 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.231
269
54 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.154
269
54 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.773
269
54 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.562
269
36 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.104
269
17 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.067
269
24 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.037
269
22 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.900
269
124 of 138
CONN offence
CONN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.231
260
50 of 138
success rate
0.435
260
79 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.421
260
13 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.207
260
38 of 138
rush: success rate
0.460
260
63 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.021
260
48 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.368
260
41 of 138
pass: success rate
0.426
260
80 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.963
260
6 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.480
260
83 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.341
260
52 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.239
260
51 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.168
260
71 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
260
107 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.625
260
30 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.127
260
45 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.088
260
73 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.038
260
28 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.900
260
65 of 138
JMU defence
JMU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.197
287
1 of 138
success rate
0.275
287
1 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.380
287
120 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.142
287
19 of 138
rush: success rate
0.261
287
2 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.061
287
108 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.130
287
9 of 138
pass: success rate
0.281
287
3 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.687
287
108 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.311
287
1 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.230
287
30 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.369
287
22 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.196
287
73 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.818
287
112 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.478
287
18 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.178
287
89 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.118
287
106 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.059
287
63 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.600
287
82 of 138
CONN defence
CONN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.019
290
61 of 138
success rate
0.386
290
64 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.255
290
85 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.014
290
54 of 138
rush: success rate
0.381
290
54 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.874
290
53 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.066
290
48 of 138
pass: success rate
0.393
290
71 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.502
290
60 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.440
290
61 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.283
290
74 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.648
290
52 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.212
290
91 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.611
290
29 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.720
290
30 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.169
290
79 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.083
290
45 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.086
290
124 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.000
290
69 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs