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Saturday 2026-10-31 15:00 · Falcon Stadium
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The trenches

Pass rushsack ratestopped behind the linefacessacks allowedpairing
AF pass rush7.0% 5738th8.9% 12467thfaces CONN8.3% 84113th7.7% ~2.5 sacks
CONN pass rush2.4% 126119th8.4% 21577thfaces AF6.7% 3094th4.5% ~1.5 sacks

sacks from CFBD play-by-play; college has no charted pressure, and these rates are not opponent-adjusted Measured on 7,926 team-games 2022–25: a college line's sacks-allowed rate carries +0.27 into its next game and a defence's sack rate only +0.10 — the line is most of this. The pairing predicts the game's sack rate +0.27, yards per dropback −0.16 and points added per play −0.15. Heaviest quarter of pairings against lightest: 7.8% vs 4.2% sack rate, 6.1 vs 7.2 yards per dropback.

CONN with the ball

CONN offence vs AF defenceCONN offenceAF defencerank gap
points added per play0.23150th0.00453rd+3
success rate0.43579th0.34727th-52
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)1.42113th1.430130th+117
rush: points added per play0.20738th0.125107th+69
rush: success rate0.46063rd0.39865th+2
rush: explosiveness1.02148th1.118122nd+74
pass: points added per play0.36841st-0.06415th-26
pass: success rate0.42680th0.31214th-66
pass: explosiveness1.9636th1.867131st+125
standard downs: success rate0.48083rd0.41137th-46
passing downs: success rate0.34152nd0.23029th-23
line yards per rush (the O-line)3.23951st2.86671st+20
rushes stopped at or behind the line0.16871st0.21695th+24
short-yardage conversion rate0.667107th0.66744th-63
points per trip inside the 404.62530th4.000111th+81
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)0.12745th0.15049th+4
havoc allowed by the front seven0.08873rd0.07528th-45
havoc allowed by the secondary0.03828th0.075101st+73
average starting field position (yards from own goal)70.90065th——

AF with the ball

AF offence vs CONN defenceAF offenceCONN defencerank gap
points added per play0.29722nd0.01961st+39
success rate0.48932nd0.38664th+32
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)1.083129th1.25585th-44
rush: points added per play0.3368th-0.01454th+46
rush: success rate0.51120th0.38154th+34
rush: explosiveness0.96670th0.87453rd-17
pass: points added per play0.29059th0.06648th-11
pass: success rate0.41786th0.39371st-15
pass: explosiveness1.8779th1.50260th+51
standard downs: success rate0.55424th0.44061st+37
passing downs: success rate0.28695th0.28374th-21
line yards per rush (the O-line)3.8366th2.64852nd+46
rushes stopped at or behind the line0.0681st0.21291st+90
short-yardage conversion rate0.80833rd0.61129th-4
points per trip inside the 404.31647th2.72030th-17
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)0.0643rd0.16979th+76
havoc allowed by the front seven0.0212nd0.08345th+43
havoc allowed by the secondary0.04343rd0.086124th+81
average starting field position (yards from own goal)73.30026th——

Rank gap = the defence's FBS rank minus the offence's on the same measure: +60 means the offence ranks 60 places better than the defence it faces. Unit against unit only — college has no player charting to name a matchup by.