Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). CONN wins about 63% of the time at a number like ours.
MASS
Games
4
Plays per game
55.0
Drives per game
11.0
SP+
-6.2 (93rd, offence 101st, defence 82nd)
Returning production
-57% (pass -36%, rush 221%, receiving -11%)
CONN
Games
4
Plays per game
65.0
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-3.7 (85th, offence 79th, defence 93rd)
Returning production
2% (pass 3%, rush 0%, receiving 2%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MASS
CONN
pass rate, all downs
38%127th
46%85th
pass rate, standard downs
31%127th
38%101st
pass rate, 1st down
33%118th
39%99th
no-huddle share
8%126th
87%27th
pass rate, passing downs
56%108th
64%62nd
pass rate, red zone
22%125th
22%128th
seconds per play (own drives)
31.615th
27.889th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MASS offence
MASS offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.280
220
30 of 138
success rate
0.450
220
59 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.237
220
65 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.267
220
18 of 138
rush: success rate
0.481
220
39 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.022
220
47 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.362
220
44 of 138
pass: success rate
0.407
220
94 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.671
220
39 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.510
220
50 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.302
220
81 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.520
220
18 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.141
220
40 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.550
220
128 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.889
220
72 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.095
220
12 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.073
220
39 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.023
220
6 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.000
220
131 of 138
CONN offence
CONN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.231
260
50 of 138
success rate
0.435
260
79 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.421
260
13 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.207
260
38 of 138
rush: success rate
0.460
260
63 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.021
260
48 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.368
260
41 of 138
pass: success rate
0.426
260
80 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.963
260
6 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.480
260
83 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.341
260
52 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.239
260
51 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.168
260
71 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
260
107 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.625
260
30 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.127
260
45 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.088
260
73 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.038
260
28 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.900
260
65 of 138
MASS defence
MASS defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.139
273
11 of 138
success rate
0.366
273
45 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.020
273
6 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.277
273
4 of 138
rush: success rate
0.353
273
35 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.316
273
1 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.046
273
44 of 138
pass: success rate
0.389
273
65 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.531
273
63 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.421
273
47 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.263
273
53 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.567
273
38 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.218
273
101 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.706
273
64 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.500
273
1 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.161
273
69 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.088
273
50 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.073
273
100 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.300
273
123 of 138
CONN defence
CONN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.019
290
61 of 138
success rate
0.386
290
64 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.255
290
85 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.014
290
54 of 138
rush: success rate
0.381
290
54 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.874
290
53 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.066
290
48 of 138
pass: success rate
0.393
290
71 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.502
290
60 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.440
290
61 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.283
290
74 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.648
290
52 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.212
290
91 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.611
290
29 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.720
290
30 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.169
290
79 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.083
290
45 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.086
290
124 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.000
290
69 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs