Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). BOIS wins about 89% of the time at a number like ours.
SDSU
Games
4
Plays per game
67.0
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
-7.8 (100th, offence 110th, defence 86th)
Returning production
99% (pass 100%, rush 100%, receiving 97%)
BOIS
Games
4
Plays per game
72.5
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
7.6 (47th, offence 29th, defence 56th)
Returning production
66% (pass 94%, rush 100%, receiving 40%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
SDSU
BOIS
pass rate, all downs
45%96th
41%120th
pass rate, standard downs
36%112th
31%125th
pass rate, 1st down
44%62nd
31%124th
no-huddle share
94%16th
3%136th
pass rate, passing downs
62%80th
66%56th
pass rate, red zone
42%51st
40%62nd
seconds per play (own drives)
26.1121st
33.25th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
SDSU offence
SDSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.085
268
133 of 138
success rate
0.347
268
130 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.143
268
111 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.034
268
122 of 138
rush: success rate
0.350
268
130 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.866
268
96 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.109
268
135 of 138
pass: success rate
0.353
268
127 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.535
268
73 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.393
268
132 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.263
268
108 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.940
268
94 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.203
268
107 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.545
268
131 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.435
268
97 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.172
268
113 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.101
268
100 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.071
268
113 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.900
268
32 of 138
BOIS offence
BOIS offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.295
290
23 of 138
success rate
0.500
290
23 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.153
290
105 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.248
290
24 of 138
rush: success rate
0.518
290
15 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.941
290
77 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.335
290
48 of 138
pass: success rate
0.461
290
55 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.490
290
87 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.538
290
34 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.400
290
16 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.504
290
20 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.149
290
46 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
290
59 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.286
290
50 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.090
290
9 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.059
290
21 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.031
290
15 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
75.000
290
7 of 138
SDSU defence
SDSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.097
294
84 of 138
success rate
0.442
294
107 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.049
294
16 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.006
294
56 of 138
rush: success rate
0.463
294
119 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.677
294
13 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.247
294
96 of 138
pass: success rate
0.429
294
99 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.542
294
67 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.495
294
106 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.305
294
92 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.393
294
128 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.111
294
5 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.850
294
122 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.400
294
71 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.099
294
1 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.058
294
4 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.041
294
20 of 138
opponent average starting field position
66.900
294
8 of 138
BOIS defence
BOIS defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.019
219
60 of 138
success rate
0.356
219
38 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.663
219
138 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.017
219
63 of 138
rush: success rate
0.330
219
27 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.083
219
116 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.114
219
62 of 138
pass: success rate
0.381
219
57 of 138
pass: explosiveness
2.024
219
137 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.415
219
41 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.262
219
50 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.469
219
27 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.284
219
133 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
219
106 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.667
219
26 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.192
219
112 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.114
219
95 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.078
219
109 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.500
219
28 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs