Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ORST wins about 58% of the time at a number like ours.
ORST
Games
4
Plays per game
68.2
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
1.2 (65th, offence 67th, defence 56th)
Returning production
58% (pass 90%, rush 144%, receiving 41%)
FRES
Games
4
Plays per game
62.2
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-0.3 (70th, offence 90th, defence 50th)
Returning production
38% (pass 7%, rush 17%, receiving 70%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
ORST
FRES
pass rate, all downs
65%2nd
47%81st
pass rate, standard downs
55%3rd
37%109th
pass rate, 1st down
57%3rd
34%117th
no-huddle share
46%86th
4%132nd
pass rate, passing downs
87%1st
69%39th
pass rate, red zone
50%19th
37%73rd
seconds per play (own drives)
27.396th
31.813th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
ORST offence
ORST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.255
273
37 of 138
success rate
0.425
273
87 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.455
273
6 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.037
273
101 of 138
rush: success rate
0.387
273
115 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.795
273
115 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.369
273
39 of 138
pass: success rate
0.449
273
63 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.754
273
25 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.486
273
76 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.304
273
78 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.198
273
59 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.108
273
9 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
273
52 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.593
273
33 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.132
273
52 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.051
273
12 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.081
273
126 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
74.800
273
11 of 138
FRES offence
FRES offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.115
249
89 of 138
success rate
0.369
249
123 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.428
249
11 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.025
249
105 of 138
rush: success rate
0.336
249
134 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.226
249
7 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.361
249
45 of 138
pass: success rate
0.445
249
66 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.606
249
55 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.399
249
130 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.303
249
79 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.559
249
131 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.266
249
136 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.500
249
133 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.640
249
85 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.133
249
55 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.108
249
109 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.024
249
7 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
66.900
249
120 of 138
ORST defence
ORST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.092
288
82 of 138
success rate
0.413
288
86 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.093
288
26 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.026
288
69 of 138
rush: success rate
0.397
288
63 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.764
288
24 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.172
288
80 of 138
pass: success rate
0.439
288
104 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.396
288
29 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.469
288
86 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.302
288
90 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.042
288
101 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.135
288
15 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
288
92 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.308
288
64 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.167
288
77 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.097
288
66 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.069
288
94 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.000
288
25 of 138
FRES defence
FRES defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.010
270
55 of 138
success rate
0.444
270
110 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.127
270
33 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.020
270
47 of 138
rush: success rate
0.438
270
102 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.821
270
31 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.114
270
63 of 138
pass: success rate
0.467
270
118 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.494
270
58 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.510
270
119 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.276
270
63 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.932
270
87 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.208
270
86 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.650
270
42 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.900
270
42 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.156
270
59 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.100
270
70 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.056
270
56 of 138
opponent average starting field position
77.400
270
134 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs