Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). WSU wins about 58% of the time at a number like ours.
WSU
Games
4
Plays per game
61.0
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-9.3 (105th, offence 120th, defence 79th)
Returning production
91% (pass 100%, rush 100%, receiving 85%)
USU
Games
4
Plays per game
65.8
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-9.3 (105th, offence 121st, defence 78th)
Returning production
65% (pass 87%, rush 74%, receiving 49%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
WSU
USU
pass rate, all downs
49%60th
54%24th
pass rate, standard downs
42%61st
51%9th
pass rate, 1st down
40%92nd
54%9th
no-huddle share
10%123rd
91%20th
pass rate, passing downs
63%69th
60%90th
pass rate, red zone
41%56th
37%75th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.070th
24.7130th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
WSU offence
WSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.037
244
128 of 138
success rate
0.365
244
125 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.265
244
54 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.008
244
112 of 138
rush: success rate
0.355
244
129 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.200
244
9 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.045
244
132 of 138
pass: success rate
0.383
244
110 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.333
244
123 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.431
244
125 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.238
244
121 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.759
244
116 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.234
244
127 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.600
244
121 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.235
244
111 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.205
244
135 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.127
244
129 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.078
244
123 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.800
244
21 of 138
USU offence
USU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.071
263
132 of 138
success rate
0.361
263
128 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.315
263
32 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.103
263
132 of 138
rush: success rate
0.358
263
126 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.853
263
99 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.032
263
130 of 138
pass: success rate
0.358
263
125 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.738
263
28 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.363
263
137 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.358
263
41 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.074
263
77 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.208
263
110 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.300
263
138 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.810
263
135 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.183
263
125 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.091
263
78 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.091
263
136 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.100
263
97 of 138
WSU defence
WSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.023
269
65 of 138
success rate
0.405
269
80 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.252
269
83 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.105
269
95 of 138
rush: success rate
0.433
269
97 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.974
269
90 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.086
269
59 of 138
pass: success rate
0.386
269
62 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.624
269
95 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.464
269
83 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.284
269
75 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.955
269
89 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.179
269
46 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.786
269
104 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.036
269
52 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.126
269
18 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.074
269
26 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.052
269
44 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.300
269
54 of 138
USU defence
USU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.021
296
62 of 138
success rate
0.405
296
79 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.133
296
35 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.008
296
62 of 138
rush: success rate
0.408
296
73 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.006
296
93 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.044
296
43 of 138
pass: success rate
0.404
296
73 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.221
296
5 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.460
296
79 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.292
296
83 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.602
296
43 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.216
296
97 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.737
296
80 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.037
296
53 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.135
296
32 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.071
296
21 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.064
296
82 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.600
296
113 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs