Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ORST wins about 73% of the time at a number like ours.
USU
Games
4
Plays per game
65.8
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-9.3 (105th, offence 121st, defence 78th)
Returning production
65% (pass 87%, rush 74%, receiving 49%)
ORST
Games
4
Plays per game
68.2
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
1.2 (65th, offence 67th, defence 56th)
Returning production
58% (pass 90%, rush 144%, receiving 41%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
USU
ORST
pass rate, all downs
54%24th
65%2nd
pass rate, standard downs
51%9th
55%3rd
pass rate, 1st down
54%9th
57%3rd
no-huddle share
91%20th
46%86th
pass rate, passing downs
60%90th
87%1st
pass rate, red zone
37%75th
50%19th
seconds per play (own drives)
24.7130th
27.396th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
USU offence
USU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.071
263
132 of 138
success rate
0.361
263
128 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.315
263
32 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.103
263
132 of 138
rush: success rate
0.358
263
126 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.853
263
99 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.032
263
130 of 138
pass: success rate
0.358
263
125 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.738
263
28 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.363
263
137 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.358
263
41 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.074
263
77 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.208
263
110 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.300
263
138 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.810
263
135 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.183
263
125 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.091
263
78 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.091
263
136 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.100
263
97 of 138
ORST offence
ORST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.255
273
37 of 138
success rate
0.425
273
87 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.455
273
6 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.037
273
101 of 138
rush: success rate
0.387
273
115 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.795
273
115 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.369
273
39 of 138
pass: success rate
0.449
273
63 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.754
273
25 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.486
273
76 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.304
273
78 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.198
273
59 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.108
273
9 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
273
52 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.593
273
33 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.132
273
52 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.051
273
12 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.081
273
126 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
74.800
273
11 of 138
USU defence
USU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.021
296
62 of 138
success rate
0.405
296
79 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.133
296
35 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.008
296
62 of 138
rush: success rate
0.408
296
73 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.006
296
93 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.044
296
43 of 138
pass: success rate
0.404
296
73 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.221
296
5 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.460
296
79 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.292
296
83 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.602
296
43 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.216
296
97 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.737
296
80 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.037
296
53 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.135
296
32 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.071
296
21 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.064
296
82 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.600
296
113 of 138
ORST defence
ORST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.092
288
82 of 138
success rate
0.413
288
86 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.093
288
26 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.026
288
69 of 138
rush: success rate
0.397
288
63 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.764
288
24 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.172
288
80 of 138
pass: success rate
0.439
288
104 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.396
288
29 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.469
288
86 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.302
288
90 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.042
288
101 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.135
288
15 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
288
92 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.308
288
64 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.167
288
77 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.097
288
66 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.069
288
94 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.000
288
25 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs