Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). SDSU wins about 64% of the time at a number like ours.
USU
Games
4
Plays per game
65.8
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-9.3 (105th, offence 121st, defence 78th)
Returning production
65% (pass 87%, rush 74%, receiving 49%)
SDSU
Games
4
Plays per game
67.0
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
-7.8 (100th, offence 110th, defence 86th)
Returning production
99% (pass 100%, rush 100%, receiving 97%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
USU
SDSU
pass rate, all downs
54%24th
45%96th
pass rate, standard downs
51%9th
36%112th
pass rate, 1st down
54%9th
44%62nd
no-huddle share
91%20th
94%16th
pass rate, passing downs
60%90th
62%80th
pass rate, red zone
37%75th
42%51st
seconds per play (own drives)
24.7130th
26.1121st
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
USU offence
USU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.071
263
132 of 138
success rate
0.361
263
128 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.315
263
32 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.103
263
132 of 138
rush: success rate
0.358
263
126 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.853
263
99 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.032
263
130 of 138
pass: success rate
0.358
263
125 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.738
263
28 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.363
263
137 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.358
263
41 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.074
263
77 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.208
263
110 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.300
263
138 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.810
263
135 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.183
263
125 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.091
263
78 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.091
263
136 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.100
263
97 of 138
SDSU offence
SDSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.085
268
133 of 138
success rate
0.347
268
130 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.143
268
111 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.034
268
122 of 138
rush: success rate
0.350
268
130 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.866
268
96 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.109
268
135 of 138
pass: success rate
0.353
268
127 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.535
268
73 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.393
268
132 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.263
268
108 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.940
268
94 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.203
268
107 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.545
268
131 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.435
268
97 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.172
268
113 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.101
268
100 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.071
268
113 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.900
268
32 of 138
USU defence
USU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.021
296
62 of 138
success rate
0.405
296
79 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.133
296
35 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.008
296
62 of 138
rush: success rate
0.408
296
73 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.006
296
93 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.044
296
43 of 138
pass: success rate
0.404
296
73 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.221
296
5 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.460
296
79 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.292
296
83 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.602
296
43 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.216
296
97 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.737
296
80 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.037
296
53 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.135
296
32 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.071
296
21 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.064
296
82 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.600
296
113 of 138
SDSU defence
SDSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.097
294
84 of 138
success rate
0.442
294
107 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.049
294
16 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.006
294
56 of 138
rush: success rate
0.463
294
119 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.677
294
13 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.247
294
96 of 138
pass: success rate
0.429
294
99 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.542
294
67 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.495
294
106 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.305
294
92 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.393
294
128 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.111
294
5 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.850
294
122 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.400
294
71 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.099
294
1 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.058
294
4 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.041
294
20 of 138
opponent average starting field position
66.900
294
8 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs