Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). TXST wins about 63% of the time at a number like ours.
TXST
Games
4
Plays per game
72.8
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-1.8 (76th, offence 26th, defence 122nd)
Returning production
76% (pass 100%, rush 48%, receiving 79%)
ORST
Games
4
Plays per game
68.2
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
1.2 (65th, offence 67th, defence 56th)
Returning production
58% (pass 90%, rush 144%, receiving 41%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
TXST
ORST
pass rate, all downs
37%130th
65%2nd
pass rate, standard downs
29%132nd
55%3rd
no-huddle share
98%6th
46%86th
pass rate, 1st down
33%120th
57%3rd
pass rate, passing downs
64%67th
87%1st
pass rate, red zone
28%118th
50%19th
seconds per play (own drives)
27.692nd
27.396th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
TXST offence
TXST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.305
291
20 of 138
success rate
0.495
291
28 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.324
291
29 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.153
291
57 of 138
rush: success rate
0.467
291
53 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.971
291
68 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.660
291
4 of 138
pass: success rate
0.559
291
10 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.852
291
14 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.484
291
80 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.530
291
2 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.268
291
48 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.139
291
37 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
291
105 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.214
291
112 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.113
291
29 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.079
291
50 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.034
291
19 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.600
291
50 of 138
ORST offence
ORST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.255
273
37 of 138
success rate
0.425
273
87 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.455
273
6 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.037
273
101 of 138
rush: success rate
0.387
273
115 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.795
273
115 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.369
273
39 of 138
pass: success rate
0.449
273
63 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.754
273
25 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.486
273
76 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.304
273
78 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.198
273
59 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.108
273
9 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
273
52 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.593
273
33 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.132
273
52 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.051
273
12 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.081
273
126 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
74.800
273
11 of 138
TXST defence
TXST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.148
321
99 of 138
success rate
0.461
321
123 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.223
321
68 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.018
321
51 of 138
rush: success rate
0.398
321
68 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.848
321
40 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.362
321
122 of 138
pass: success rate
0.511
321
133 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.433
321
37 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.519
321
124 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.343
321
117 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.502
321
30 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.250
321
123 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.591
321
23 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.321
321
123 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.159
321
66 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.081
321
39 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.078
321
111 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.900
321
46 of 138
ORST defence
ORST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.092
288
82 of 138
success rate
0.413
288
86 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.093
288
26 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.026
288
69 of 138
rush: success rate
0.397
288
63 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.764
288
24 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.172
288
80 of 138
pass: success rate
0.439
288
104 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.396
288
29 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.469
288
86 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.302
288
90 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.042
288
101 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.135
288
15 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
288
92 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.308
288
64 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.167
288
77 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.097
288
66 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.069
288
94 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.000
288
25 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs