Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). BOIS wins about 72% of the time at a number like ours.
TXST
Games
4
Plays per game
72.8
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-1.8 (76th, offence 26th, defence 122nd)
Returning production
76% (pass 100%, rush 48%, receiving 79%)
BOIS
Games
4
Plays per game
72.5
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
7.6 (47th, offence 29th, defence 56th)
Returning production
66% (pass 94%, rush 100%, receiving 40%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
TXST
BOIS
pass rate, all downs
37%130th
41%120th
pass rate, standard downs
29%132nd
31%125th
no-huddle share
98%6th
3%136th
pass rate, 1st down
33%120th
31%124th
pass rate, passing downs
64%67th
66%56th
pass rate, red zone
28%118th
40%62nd
seconds per play (own drives)
27.692nd
33.25th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
TXST offence
TXST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.305
291
20 of 138
success rate
0.495
291
28 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.324
291
29 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.153
291
57 of 138
rush: success rate
0.467
291
53 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.971
291
68 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.660
291
4 of 138
pass: success rate
0.559
291
10 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.852
291
14 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.484
291
80 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.530
291
2 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.268
291
48 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.139
291
37 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
291
105 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.214
291
112 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.113
291
29 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.079
291
50 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.034
291
19 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.600
291
50 of 138
BOIS offence
BOIS offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.295
290
23 of 138
success rate
0.500
290
23 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.153
290
105 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.248
290
24 of 138
rush: success rate
0.518
290
15 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.941
290
77 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.335
290
48 of 138
pass: success rate
0.461
290
55 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.490
290
87 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.538
290
34 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.400
290
16 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.504
290
20 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.149
290
46 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
290
59 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.286
290
50 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.090
290
9 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.059
290
21 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.031
290
15 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
75.000
290
7 of 138
TXST defence
TXST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.148
321
99 of 138
success rate
0.461
321
123 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.223
321
68 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.018
321
51 of 138
rush: success rate
0.398
321
68 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.848
321
40 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.362
321
122 of 138
pass: success rate
0.511
321
133 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.433
321
37 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.519
321
124 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.343
321
117 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.502
321
30 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.250
321
123 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.591
321
23 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.321
321
123 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.159
321
66 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.081
321
39 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.078
321
111 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.900
321
46 of 138
BOIS defence
BOIS defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.019
219
60 of 138
success rate
0.356
219
38 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.663
219
138 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.017
219
63 of 138
rush: success rate
0.330
219
27 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.083
219
116 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.114
219
62 of 138
pass: success rate
0.381
219
57 of 138
pass: explosiveness
2.024
219
137 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.415
219
41 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.262
219
50 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.469
219
27 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.284
219
133 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
219
106 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.667
219
26 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.192
219
112 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.114
219
95 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.078
219
109 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.500
219
28 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs