Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). TXST wins about 86% of the time at a number like ours.
USU
Games
4
Plays per game
65.8
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-9.3 (105th, offence 121st, defence 78th)
Returning production
65% (pass 87%, rush 74%, receiving 49%)
TXST
Games
4
Plays per game
72.8
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-1.8 (76th, offence 26th, defence 122nd)
Returning production
76% (pass 100%, rush 48%, receiving 79%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
USU
TXST
pass rate, all downs
54%24th
37%130th
pass rate, standard downs
51%9th
29%132nd
pass rate, 1st down
54%9th
33%120th
no-huddle share
91%20th
98%6th
pass rate, passing downs
60%90th
64%67th
pass rate, red zone
37%75th
28%118th
seconds per play (own drives)
24.7130th
27.692nd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
USU offence
USU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.071
263
132 of 138
success rate
0.361
263
128 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.315
263
32 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.103
263
132 of 138
rush: success rate
0.358
263
126 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.853
263
99 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.032
263
130 of 138
pass: success rate
0.358
263
125 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.738
263
28 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.363
263
137 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.358
263
41 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.074
263
77 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.208
263
110 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.300
263
138 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.810
263
135 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.183
263
125 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.091
263
78 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.091
263
136 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.100
263
97 of 138
TXST offence
TXST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.305
291
20 of 138
success rate
0.495
291
28 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.324
291
29 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.153
291
57 of 138
rush: success rate
0.467
291
53 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.971
291
68 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.660
291
4 of 138
pass: success rate
0.559
291
10 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.852
291
14 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.484
291
80 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.530
291
2 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.268
291
48 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.139
291
37 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
291
105 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.214
291
112 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.113
291
29 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.079
291
50 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.034
291
19 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.600
291
50 of 138
USU defence
USU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.021
296
62 of 138
success rate
0.405
296
79 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.133
296
35 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.008
296
62 of 138
rush: success rate
0.408
296
73 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.006
296
93 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.044
296
43 of 138
pass: success rate
0.404
296
73 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.221
296
5 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.460
296
79 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.292
296
83 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.602
296
43 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.216
296
97 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.737
296
80 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.037
296
53 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.135
296
32 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.071
296
21 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.064
296
82 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.600
296
113 of 138
TXST defence
TXST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.148
321
99 of 138
success rate
0.461
321
123 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.223
321
68 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.018
321
51 of 138
rush: success rate
0.398
321
68 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.848
321
40 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.362
321
122 of 138
pass: success rate
0.511
321
133 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.433
321
37 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.519
321
124 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.343
321
117 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.502
321
30 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.250
321
123 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.591
321
23 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.321
321
123 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.159
321
66 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.081
321
39 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.078
321
111 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.900
321
46 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs